This week’s topic
Since the beginning of 2022, Wande green power index (8841491. WI) has retreated by 9.23% in total, which has aroused widespread concern in the market. This week we summarized and analyzed the following four questions:
(1) what are the reasons for the recent adjustment of the new energy green power sector? What do you think of the later point of view?
(2) views of nuclear power sector?
(3) the difference of transaction premium of green power in different regions?
(4) implementation of long-term electricity price in 2022?
Core view
After the implementation of the 2021 performance express, with the improvement of the marginal fundamentals, the green power sector is expected to stop falling. ① The market is worried that under the expectation of stabilizing the economy in 2022, the dual control target policy will change, and the priority of energy consumption assessment will give way to economic growth, resulting in the slowdown of the promotion rhythm of “double carbon”. We believe that the tone of the “double carbon” policy has not changed and the pace of promotion will not slow down. ② The market is worried that the announcement of thermal power operation business performance express will cause great disturbance to the stock price, so some funds rush to avoid risks. We believe that the power operation supply is tight in 2022, and the decline of coal price promotes the profit repair of thermal power assets. With the implementation of the performance express in 2021, the green power sector is expected to stop falling.
With the help of policies, the China National Nuclear Power Co.Ltd(601985) industry is expected to usher in an intensive construction period in the 14th five year plan. ① In 2021, the government document first proposed to “actively” develop nuclear power, China National Nuclear Power Co.Ltd(601985) is expected to usher in an intensive construction period during the 14th Five Year Plan period. We expect that China will approve 6-8 independent third-generation nuclear power units per year from 2021 to 2025. ② China’s fourth generation nuclear high temperature gas cooled reactor was successfully connected to the grid at the end of 2021, leaping into the era of China National Nuclear Power Co.Ltd(601985) technology leadership. The thermal efficiency of high temperature gas cooled reactor is leading, the cost of hydrogen production is close to that of fossil energy hydrogen production and coke oven gas hydrogen extraction, and the commercial prospect is broad.
In 2022, the green power premium in various regions will be 60-70 yuan / MW, which will gradually approach the carbon price in the long term. ① In September 2021, China’s first green power transaction was launched, with an average premium of about 20 yuan / MWh. In December 2021, Jiangsu Province and Guangdong Province successively announced the trading results of the power market. The green power premium was 72 and 61 yuan / MWh respectively, and the premium further increased. ② The essence of green power transaction is to reflect the environmental value of green power and price it through market-oriented means in addition to the energy attribute. In the medium and long term, in a relatively stable and transparent market environment, the green power premium will approach the carbon price through the full linkage of the power market and the carbon market.
In 2022, the electricity prices of local long-term associations were successively implemented, and the increase of transaction price reached the upper limit by 20%. Taking Jiangsu Province as an example, the transaction price of bilateral negotiation in 2022 reached 466.78 yuan / MW, 19.38% higher than the benchmark coal price; The listing transaction price was 464.76 yuan / MW, 18.86% higher than the benchmark coal price.
Investment advice
During the 14th Five Year Plan period, the installed capacity of Fengguang is expected to increase rapidly. With the catalysis of green power policy, the trading volume of green power is expected to continue to grow. At the same time, the power supply and demand will remain tight, and the electricity price is easy to rise but difficult to fall. Therefore, new energy operators are high-quality targets with stable volume and price rise, and the valuation is expected to increase rapidly. In terms of specific targets, the proposal of thermal power transformation to new energy targets focuses on [ Huaneng Power International Inc(600011) (a + H)] [China Resources Power] [ Huadian Power International Corporation Limited(600027) (a + H)]; New energy operators suggest paying attention to [Longyuan Power] [ Nyocor Co.Ltd(600821) ] [ Jilin Electric Power Co.Ltd(000875) ] [ China Three Gorges Renewables (Group) Co.Ltd(600905) ] [ Fujian Funeng Co.Ltd(600483) ].
Risk tips: policy promotion is less than expected, power demand is less than expected, electricity price reduction risk, coal price fluctuation risk, etc.
