Key points:
Medical service II rose 1.78% last week, with a moderate increase
Last week, pharmaceutical biology closed at 11200.58 points, up 2.41%, ranking No. 1 in Shenwan industry. CSI 300 fell 1.98%, and pharmaceutical outperformed CSI 300 index by 4.40%; Medical service II closed at 10752.21 points, up 1.78%; Traditional Chinese Medicine II closed at 8500.18, up 0.72%; Chemical pharmaceuticals closed at 12334.54 points, up 1.29%; Biological products II closed at 12107.91 points, up 1.13%; Pharmaceutical Business II closed at 6539.02 points, up 0.14%; Medical device II closed at 10235.14 points, up 7.71%; From the perspective of rise and fall characteristics, the performance of medical devices is strong.
Medical service PE (TTM) increased by 1.10x month on month, and Pb (LF) increased by 0.14x month on month
At present, the PE of medical service sector is 62.69x, the maximum value of PE in recent year is 185.47x, and the minimum value is 61.59x; The current Pb is 7.97x, the maximum value of Pb in recent years is 14.47x, and the minimum value is 7.83x. PE in the medical service sector increased by 1.10x month on month, Pb increased by 0.14x month on month, and PE and Pb in the medical service sector were at the bottom level in recent one year. The premium rate of the medical service sector relative to the CSI 300 valuation was 364.13%. Although the valuation of the medical service sector is still high statically, considering the high performance growth of specialized hospitals and CXO industry related companies, good industry development trend and policy immunity, the current valuation is more reasonable.
Important information
The 14th five year plan for public services stipulates that by 2025, the average life expectancy will be 78.3 years, and the participation rate of basic old-age insurance will reach 95%
On January 10, 21 departments including the national development and Reform Commission recently issued the public service plan for the 14th five year plan. In terms of elderly care services, the plan proposes to strengthen the construction of elderly care service institutions with comprehensive functions within towns (streets). Strengthen the construction of public elderly care institutions, implement the construction of elderly care service facilities in new urban areas and residential (small) areas according to the standard of no less than 0.1 square meters per capita, and steadily improve the proportion of nursing beds. We will improve the old-age insurance system and promote the long-term balance of basic old-age insurance funds. Realize the national overall planning of basic old-age insurance for enterprise employees. We will improve the reasonable adjustment mechanism for the basic pensions of urban workers and timely adjust the basic pension standards for urban and rural residents. In terms of medical and health care, the plan proposes to strengthen the training of grass-roots TCM talents, encourage and guide grass-roots medical and health institutions to provide appropriate TCM services. We will improve the direct settlement system for cross provincial and non local medical treatment, strengthen the construction of national and provincial non local medical treatment settlement centers and cross regional business cooperation, and comprehensively improve the management and service capacity. Qualified internet medical services will be included in the scope of medical insurance payment.
This week’s view
We previously judged that innovation has entered the stage of “beach landing” from “strategic layout”, and “beach landing” puts forward higher requirements for innovation. The market is worried that the internal volume of new drug R & D in recent years will slow down the R & D investment of pharmaceutical enterprises, which will have an impact on the Shenzhen New Industries Biomedical Engineering Co.Ltd(300832) chain CXO company. We believe that the pace of China Meheco Group Co.Ltd(600056) innovation will not stop in the future, but require enterprises to move from pseudo innovation to real innovation. From the perspective of the impact on CXO related companies in the medical service sector, it is an indisputable fact that the life cycle of generic drugs has become shorter and the normalization of volume procurement has been made. However, in the future, higher requirements have been put forward for the innovation of pharmaceutical enterprises. At this time, it can better highlight the value of CXO leading companies to pharmaceutical innovation. The so-called “beach landing” is the time for enterprises to fight hard. It will be more and more difficult to follow the strategy by relying on simple and non innovative targets. In the past, the strategy of target following has tended to fail. Only the innovation at the source is the real innovation. CXO industry will continue to benefit from the wave of new drug R & D and innovation in China.
For traditional chemical drug R & D, CXO’s drug discovery technologies such as computer-aided design and del technology can efficiently screen potential lead compounds for customers, and cooperate with later drug development services. This service can make cro an important flow inlet for drug discovery, and its position in new drug R & D can be further enhanced. At the same time, CXO company closely follows the cutting-edge technologies of new drugs, such as ADC, protac, cell gene therapy technology, etc. when China’s new drug R & D is becoming more and more involved, the cutting-edge technologies accumulated by CXO company can break the bottleneck of “pseudo innovation” of most pharmaceutical enterprises and help pharmaceutical enterprises realize “real innovation”. For enterprises with weak innovation ability, relying on the previous target following “strategic layout” strategy will become more and more difficult. Only by cooperating with CXO enterprises from “pseudo innovation” to “real innovation” can we break through the cocoon and become a butterfly, and the CXO industry will continue to benefit from the sina tide of new drug R & D and innovation in China.
In terms of sector layout, we maintain the rating of “overweight” in the medical service industry. We suggest that investors pay attention to the layout opportunities brought by the adjustment of sectors with Chinese advantages, adhere to the stock selection ideas of “policy immunization” and “innovation”. We suggest to pay attention to: (1) innovative drug seller “CXO” industrial chain company. (2) Private specialized medical service related companies. (3) Third party medical laboratory.
Risk tips
(1) uncertainty of policy changes; (2) The R & D investment of innovative drugs is less than expected; (3) Risk that the performance of the industry and listed companies is lower than expected.
