Recent market review
From December 18, 2021 to January 17, 2022, CSI 300 fell by 3.78%, the machinery sector fell by 2.79%, outperforming the market by 0.99 percentage points, ranking 23rd among all the primary industries of Shenwan, and 19 sub industries 13 fell by 5. Among them, the sub industries with better performance were building equipment, refrigeration and air conditioning equipment, Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) , up 4.56%, 2.85% and 2.31% respectively. As of January 17, 2022, the industry TTM P / E ratio was 26 times (overall method, excluding negative values), and the valuation premium rate relative to CSI 300 was 104%.
Review of the overall situation of the machinery industry
In terms of construction machinery, about 24000 excavators were sold in December, a year-on-year decrease of 23.8%, of which 15400 were sold in China, a year-on-year decrease of 43.5%; 8615 sets were exported, with a year-on-year increase of 105%. In December, 8857 loaders of various types were sold, a year-on-year decrease of 21.2%, and 6316 loaders of various types were sold in the Chinese market, a year-on-year decrease of 26%; 2541 sets were exported, a year-on-year decrease of 6.17%. In terms of forklift sales, the sales of forklift trucks in the whole industry in November was about 87700, a year-on-year increase of 2.03%. From the start-up hours of excavators, the start-up hours of Komatsu in December decreased by 14.4% year-on-year to 110.0 hours. In other major regions of the world, except Japan, which decreased by 6.4 percentage points, the number of startup hours in Japan was 53.7 hours; The number of startup hours in Europe was 60.6 hours, a year-on-year increase of 2.3%; Indonesia started up for 199.3 hours, a year-on-year increase of 12.3%; North America grew 4.3% year-on-year to 63.9 hours. In terms of industry Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) , the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of fixed asset investment in manufacturing industry in December was 13.5%. In the main downstream application scenarios, the fixed asset investment in automobile industry fell by 3.7% in December, and the cumulative growth rate of fixed asset investment in 3C industry maintained a high level of 22.3%. Benefiting from the continuous improvement of fixed asset investment in downstream manufacturing industry, industrial Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) output increased by 15.1% year-on-year in December to 35200 units. In the future, with the gradual dissipation of the impact of the epidemic and the continuous recovery of manufacturing investment, the industrial Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) production and marketing data will continue to improve, and the industrial Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) industrial chain will usher in a golden period of domestic substitution.
Investment strategy
In terms of construction machinery, according to the data of China Construction Machinery Industry Association, the sales volume of excavators in December was 24000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 23.8%, of which 15423 units were sold in the Chinese market, a year-on-year decrease of 43.5%; 8615 sets were exported, with a year-on-year increase of 105%. In 2021, the annual excavator sales volume was 342800 units, with a year-on-year increase of 4.63%, which was lower than the annual growth expectation of 10%. In addition, the recent central economic work conference emphasized steady growth, and the Ministry of Finance issued a new special debt of 1.46 trillion yuan in 2022 in advance. The successive commencement of major projects around the country has driven the anti seasonal growth of construction machinery demand. We believe that the demand for construction machinery will further weaken in January and February due to the influence of the Spring Festival and seasonal factors. It is expected that with the increase of real estate and infrastructure demand in March, The production and sales data of construction machinery is expected to pick up. Under this expectation, it is suggested to focus on leading enterprises in the industry, such as leading Sany Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(600031) (600031), Shaanxi Construction Machinery Co.Ltd(600984) (600984) of construction machinery and Jiangsu Hengli Hydraulic Co.Ltd(601100) (601100) of core parts manufacturers.
In terms of Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) , the Ministry of industry and information technology led the introduction of two favorable plans, which clearly put forward the goal of an average annual growth of 20% in industry revenue and doubling the Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) density of manufacturing industry by 2025. The performance of Q3 Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) enterprises is not optimistic this year. Some representative companies in China have experienced a sharp rise in revenue but a sharp decline in profits. The rise in cost and price is one factor, and the more fundamental reason is still limited by technical barriers. Most of China’s Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) enterprises are concentrated in the field of medium and low-end products, and their bargaining power is not strong. The introduction of the two plans will accelerate the process of China’s Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) industry towards high-end. In addition, with the gradual decline of China’s demographic dividend and the continuous decline of industrial Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) prices, the price scissors difference between the two has been significantly reduced, and machine replacement will become an important trend in the transformation of manufacturing industry in the future. In this process, it is suggested to pay attention to domestic industrial Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) leaders Estun Automation Co.Ltd(002747) (002747), Guangdong Topstar Technology Co.Ltd(300607) (300607) and reducer leaders Leader Harmonious Drive Systems Co.Ltd(688017) (688017).
Risk warning: risk of global epidemic spread; Macroeconomic growth is lower than expected; Price fluctuation risk of raw materials; Global trade friction risk.
