The power exchange mode is ready and Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) accelerates the layout
In the previous report, we pointed out that the power exchange mode has the advantages of saving time, reducing cost and completely solving mileage anxiety. It is very suitable as the best energy supplement form of new energy vehicles. At present, with strong policy support, industry giants have joined the Bureau, and it is expected to achieve explosive growth during the 14th Five Year Plan period; At the same time, it also shows that the power exchange standards are not unified, and the standards of battery size and interface are different, which will also hinder the development of the industry in the short term.
This afternoon, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) officially released the power exchange brand evogo, which mainly includes three parts: power exchange block, power exchange station and app supporting services. Among them, a single power exchange block can provide a endurance of about 200km, and can be used in combination with multiple blocks; The power exchange station covers an area of about 3 parking spaces, the power exchange time is 1 minute, and 48 blocks can be reserved in a single station; App provides the interconnection and service of people, vehicles, stations and electric blocks. Ningde power exchange will face all vehicle enterprises, which is another major action of Ningde in the field of power exchange. At the same time, it also shows that the power exchange mode has gradually become an industry consensus.
How to consider the incremental market brought by changing the power module to the power battery? In the power exchange mode, which link has the largest space? This report will try to interpret the above problems through detailed calculations.
During the “14th five year plan” period, it is expected to bring an incremental market of nearly 40 billion yuan for power batteries
In charging mode, each electric vehicle only needs one battery; In the power exchange mode, in addition to the batteries in the electric vehicle, the power exchange station should also have a certain number of standby batteries to exchange power for the vehicle, which is the basic logic for us to calculate the incremental market brought by the power exchange mode.
In our last report, we predicted that from 2022 to 2025, the number of replacement power stations is expected to reach 2420, 5566, 11132 and 20038 respectively, that is, the number of replacement power stations in China will exceed 20000 at the end of the 14th five year plan, which may become a conservative estimate.
Considering the number of standby batteries, battery capacity, power battery price and other parameters of each station of commercial vehicle exchange station and passenger vehicle exchange station, we predict that the power exchange mode from 2022 to 2025 is expected to bring new markets of power batteries of 2.432 billion yuan, 6.173 billion yuan, 10.664 billion yuan and 17.476 billion yuan respectively, totaling 36.7 billion yuan.
Under the power exchange mode, the operation of the power exchange station or the largest part of the market space
Under the power exchange mode, car companies, battery suppliers, power exchange equipment suppliers, power exchange operators and other links will usher in the incremental market. In our last report, we made a preliminary calculation on the operating market space of the power exchange station. In addition to the prediction of the incremental market of power batteries in this report, we updated the market of power exchange station equipment Calculation of operation market of replacement power station.
Under the new prediction model, the investment in new power station equipment from 2022 to 2025 may be 3.551 billion yuan, 7.519 billion yuan, 12.023 billion yuan and 16.564 billion yuan respectively, with a total of about 39.7 billion yuan, slightly larger than the incremental battery market. From 2022 to 2025, the annual operation space of power exchange station is expected to reach 8.315 billion yuan, 24.371 billion yuan, 61.456 billion yuan and 135.755 billion yuan respectively, which is still the largest link in the market space of power exchange field.
Investment advice
Considering that the power exchange industry may break out rapidly, it is recommended to focus on the leading enterprises: 1, Gcl Energy Technology Co.Ltd(002015) (002015. SZ) – the leading operator of power exchange station; 2. Suzhou Harmontronics Automation Technology Co.Ltd(688022) (688022. SH) – power exchange equipment manufacturer and equipment maintainer; 3. Bozhon Precision Industry Technology Co.Ltd(688097) (688097. SH) – intelligent power station solution; 4. Shandong Weida Machinery Co.Ltd(002026) (002026. SZ) – supplier of Weilai second generation replacement power station; 5. Csg Smart Science&Technology Co.Ltd(300222) (300222. SZ) – supplier of complete power station replacement solution; 6. Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) (300750. SZ) – release the accelerated layout of power exchange brand evogo.
Risk tips
Macroeconomic downturn and market demand decline; The price of raw materials fluctuates greatly; Risk of policy change in power exchange industry, etc.
