Index
On January 17, 2022, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3541.43 points, up 0.58%; Shenzhen composite index closed at 14363.57 points, up 1.51%; The coal industry index closed at 2410.14 points, up 0.84%. The top three companies are: Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry Co.Ltd(601001) , Shanxi Coal International Energy Group Co.Ltd(600546) , Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) . The non-ferrous metals index closed at 5509.35 points, down 0.44%. The top three companies are: Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) , Yinbang Clad Material Co.Ltd(300337) , Jinzhou Jixiang Molybdenum Co.Ltd(603399) .
Comments
Coal prices will continue to operate smoothly in the near future, and the profitability of the sector is sustainable. On the 13th, the Indonesian government announced that 37 heavy ships had been approved to leave the port in view of the short-term guarantee of China’s coal power supply; Among them, 17 ships flow to China. Since the release of Indonesia’s coal export on Tuesday, the sentiment of supporting prices in the port market has cooled. Although the sentiment of the port market has cooled down, the pit mouth price continues to rise. Affected by the shortage of high-quality resources in the port, the control of initiating explosive devices, extremely cold weather, civil power support and other factors, the decline of coal price is limited. It is expected that the coal price will operate stably in the future. In addition, the current expectation of steady economic growth is rising. From the demand side, the operating rates of rebar and coke in China have significantly improved. The data of real estate and infrastructure construction after the Spring Festival is expected to improve. The coal coke steel industry chain will be repaired, and the probability of continuous rebound of double coke prices is strong.
In the sector, the performance forecast is being intensively disclosed, in which the net profit attributable to the parent company of Shaanxi Heimao Coking Co.Ltd(601015) and Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry Co.Ltd(601001) increased by 457% and 456% year-on-year respectively. Although the fourth quarter profit fell slightly due to the adjustment of coal price at the end of October, except for some companies, the annual profit of coal companies increased significantly, and the annual profit of the industry improved significantly. With the increase of the benchmark price of the long-term association, it is expected that the high profit of coal enterprises will be maintained in the medium and long term. Superimposed with the rise of coking coal association price on the profit side, high-quality resource enterprises will have long-term value in the future, and the improvement of sector valuation is expected to start. Related subjects: Shaanxi Heimao Coking Co.Ltd(601015) , Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) , Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry Co.Ltd(601001) , China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) .
Industry dynamics
\u3000\u30001. With the continuous promotion of the policy of increasing production and ensuring supply, 380 million tons of raw coal were produced in December, with a year-on-year increase of 7.2%, 2.6 percentage points faster than the previous month, 10.7% higher than the same period in 2019, an average increase of 5.2% in two years, and an average daily output of 12.41 million tons; 30.95 million tons of coal were imported, a year-on-year decrease of 20.8%. (National Bureau of Statistics)
Company dynamics
Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry Co.Ltd(601001) (601001. SH): it is estimated that the net profit attributable to shareholders of Listed Companies in 2021 will be about 4.868 billion yuan, an increase of about 3.992 billion yuan compared with the same period of last year, a year-on-year increase of about 455.84%.
Risk tip: the macro economy is less than expected and the coal supply remains high.
