Key investment points
Tracking of intelligent electric vehicle demand in November 2021: 1) in December 2021, the new energy penetration rate reached 21.3%, up 1.3pct month on month, the absolute sales volume continued to increase, and the penetration rate reached a record high. The sales volume of new forces of car making accounted for 24.9% of electric vehicles, down 0.2pct month on month. Among the top three independent new forces, ideal, Xiaopeng and monthly sales hit a record high. Among them, Tesla‘s sales volume in China reached a record high, reaching 70847 vehicles, a month on month increase of + 34%; Weilai automobile sold 10489 vehicles, a month on month increase of – 3.6%; Xiaopeng sold 16000 cars, another record high, with a month on month increase of + 2.5%; Ideal car sales 14087 units, a month on month increase of + 4.5%. 2) Intelligent function penetration tracking: HUD penetration rate is higher than that of traditional automobile enterprises, and the overall penetration rate of lidar is low; The overall penetration rate of active braking function is nearly half; The penetration rate of Expressway auxiliary functions has gradually increased, and the urban automatic driving function is only available for Xiaopeng P5 model.
Smart electric vehicle industry news tracking: smart electric policy tracking: the State Council issued the 14th five year plan for cold chain logistics development to promote the wide application of big data, Internet of things, 5g, blockchain, artificial intelligence and other technologies in the field of cold chain logistics. Industrial information tracking: 1) self research + self-made + cooperation, and the chip layout of automobile enterprises is accelerated. Geely invested in the establishment of remote smart core technology Co., Ltd; Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) step up the layout of automotive semiconductor field; Byd Company Limited(002594) 8-inch high-power chip has been fully localized; Xiaomi group increased capital for Suzhou Qixin micro semiconductor. 2) Supported by the third-party algorithm company, robotaxi accelerates the landing. Geely has reached cooperation with waymo, and its krypton brand will provide exclusive vehicles for waymo driverless team; Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) reach strategic cooperation with Wenyuan Zhixing and Ruqi travel. The three parties will jointly develop and manufacture robotaxi products based on their respective advantages; Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) enjoy the operation of robotaxi and fully apply momenta’s “flywheel” L4 level automatic driving technology. 3) Huawei’s industrial chain continues to advance, and its solution ecological partners continue to grow. On December 21, 2021, Huawei automotive intelligent vehicle solutions ecological forum was held online. At the meeting, Huawei announced that the partners of the three ecosystems have reached 70 + / 70 + / 150 + respectively. 4) AI chip players accelerated to enter the game, and the competition became more and more fierce. During ces2022, Mobileye / NVIDIA / Qualcomm / anba launched their own autopilot computing platform products one after another, and the competition for AI chips became more and more fierce.
Tracking target of intelligent electric vehicle: from December 15, 2021 to January 14, 2022, the weighted increase of market value of domestic listed companies was – 8.27%, and the top three vehicle enterprises were Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) / Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) / Geely Automobile, with an increase of – 6.20% / – 8.67% / – 12.28% respectively; Among the parts, the top three companies were Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) / Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) / Foryou Corporation(002906) , with increases of + 21.25% / + 13.01% / + 10.80% respectively. From 2021 to 2023, the weighted average PE value of the market value of the domestic core target is 75.0 / 38.1 / 27.1 times, and the weighted average PS value of the market value is 4.1 / 3.3 / 2.6 times. The weighted increase in the market value of overseas listed companies was + 0.52%. Among the new forces of car making, Tesla / Weilai automobile / ideal automobile / Xiaopeng automobile increased by + 7.54% / + 0.52% / + 2.27% / 15.08% respectively. The weighted average PE of the market value of the core subject matter of overseas listing from 2021 to 2023 is 143.3 / 128.2 / 134.3 times, and the weighted average PS value is 19.8 / 15.8 / 13.0 times
Investment suggestion: still optimistic about investment opportunities in the automobile sector. The triple cycle resonance in 2022, the golden age of autonomy: 1) chip mitigation brings the demand for replenishment of the passenger car industry, and 2021q4-2022q3 enters the cycle of continuous improvement of production and sales data year-on-year. 2) Intelligent + electric + hybrid, a new round of new cars of independent brands have been listed one after another, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles continues to rise, driving the market share of independent brands to rise. 3) All independent brands actively promote overseas strategies, and exports will continue to enter the high growth channel. The whole vehicle segment recommends [ Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) + ideal car + Xiaopeng Car + Byd Company Limited(002594) + Geely car + Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) + Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) + Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) ], pays attention to [Weilai Car + Chongqing Sokon Industry Group Stock Co.Ltd(601127) + Jiangjian segment recommends [ Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) + Foryou Corporation(002906) + Bert Guoqi research + Ikd Co.Ltd(600933) + Huayu Automotive Systems Company Limited(600741) ], and pays attention to [ Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co.Ltd(601799) + Ningbo Jifeng Auto Parts Co.Ltd(603997) + Ningbo Joyson Electronic Corp(600699) + Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co.Ltd(603305) ].
Risk tip: the development of intelligent driving industry is less than expected, laws and regulations restrict the development of intelligent driving, and there is a risk of intensified trade friction between China and the United States.
