With frequent favorable policies, China's hydrogen energy industry is expected to usher in an acceleration period. Compared with traditional fuels such as coal, natural gas and oil, hydrogen has the natural advantages of high energy density and zero reaction emission. It is an ideal clean energy under China's carbon neutralization goal. In order to accelerate the development of China's hydrogen energy industry, the national and local governments frequently support the hydrogen energy industry. In addition, the industrial economic market is broad, the number of hydrogen energy financing projects continues to grow, and the layout of relevant enterprises is accelerated. The development of China's hydrogen energy industry will usher in an accelerated period.
The hydrogen industry involves many core links, and the dawn of localization of core equipment appears. The hydrogen energy industry involves many links such as preparation, storage and transportation, filling and so on. The industrial chain is huge. After years of development, the localization of some core equipment has begun to show results. ① Hydrogen production: hydrogen production from fossil energy is still the mainstream technical route in China. In the long run, hydrogen production from electrolytic water with continuous cost reduction is the general trend of the industry. As the core equipment for hydrogen production from electrolytic water, alkaline electrolyzer has basically realized localization; ② Hydrogen storage (Transportation): at present, China still focuses on high-pressure gas hydrogen transportation, in which long pipe trailer hydrogen transportation is widely used, and pipeline hydrogen transportation is subject to high cost, which is difficult to scale in the short term; On board hydrogen storage is the largest segment of hydrogen storage market. In 2020, the market scale of China's on-board hydrogen storage bottles will only be 210 million yuan and will reach 3.2 billion yuan in 2025. At present, China's on-board hydrogen storage is still dominated by 35mpaiii bottles. 70mpaiii and IV hydrogen storage bottles are technically difficult and are still dominated by overseas enterprises; ③ Hydrogenation: under the policy overweight, the expansion of China's hydrogenation stations has been strengthened. Subject to the high investment cost, China's hydrogenation stations have not yet realized commercial operation. In the cost composition of hydrogenation stations, the equipment investment accounts for as much as 45%. The core equipment hydrogen compressors and hydrogenation machines are still highly dependent on imports. Equipment localization is the most important means to reduce costs.
The fuel cell market is rapidly opening up, and local equipment companies are accelerating their layout. Fuel cell vehicles are in a period of rapid introduction. GGII predicts that the market scale of fuel cell industry will reach 23 billion yuan in 2023 and 70 billion yuan in 2025. ① Fuel cell system is the most core functional component of fecv, accounting for more than 60% of the value of the whole vehicle, and has basically realized domestic supply; ② Stacks account for 60% of the value of fuel cell system +. China has basically realized localization of stacks below 70kw, but the key materials are still highly dependent on imports, and the production process of stacks is complex. Based on the synergy of fuel cell and power cell production process, we are optimistic about the first mover advantage of lithium battery equipment enterprises in the field of fuel cells; ③ Air compressor is the core system accessory of fuel cell system. We expect that the market scale in China will reach 158.1 billion yuan from 2020 to 2050, and the localization rate of air compressor will be 90% + in 2020. However, as the industry is still in the early stage of industrialization, the phenomenon of head shuffling occurs frequently. With the determination of technical route and the large-scale effect of market demand, we are optimistic that enterprises with first mover advantage will stand out. In addition, domestic enterprises are accelerating the layout and starting the localization process of core components such as hydrogen circulation system and humidifier.
Investment suggestion: as an important link in the hydrogen energy industry chain, we are optimistic about the advantageous enterprises with forward-looking layout, and take the lead in highlighting the encirclement. It is suggested to pay attention to Hangzhou Oxygen Plant Group Co.Ltd(002430) , Hefei Kewell Power System Co.Ltd(688551) , Moon Environment Technology Co.Ltd(000811) , Fujian Snowman Co.Ltd(002639) , Houpu Clean Energy Co.Ltd(300471) , Beijing Sinohytec Co.Ltd(688339) , Zhangjiagang Furui Special Equipment Co.Ltd(300228) , Shanghai Hanbell Precise Machinery Co.Ltd(002158) , etc.
Risk tips: the risk of national and local policy adjustment, the localization of core equipment is less than expected, the industrialization process of fuel cell is less than expected, the industry competition is intensified, the international trade friction is intensified, etc.
