Core view
This week’s market review. In the second week, the real estate sector index was weaker than the CSI 300 index and the gem index. The relative return of the real estate sector compared with the CSI 300 index was – 1.5%. The CSI 300 index closed at 4726.73, with a weekly increase of – 2.0%; The gem index closed at 3119.41, with a weekly increase of + 0.7%; The real estate sector index closed at 3398.64, with a weekly increase of – 3.5%.
Industry highlights this week. The central bank announced the increment of social financing scale in 2021 and the stock of social financing scale at the end of the year. The national development and Reform Commission encourages PPP and other means to participate in the supply of public services and liberalize access restrictions. The Ministry of housing and urban rural development said that it would increase policy support for finance, land and public services and expand the supply of affordable rental housing. China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) , Oct issues medium-term notes and short-term financing bonds. Recently, real estate bonds have weakened as a whole, and most of them have fallen significantly.
The sales of new houses this week increased compared with last week, and the sales of second-hand houses increased compared with last week. In the second week, the sales of new houses in 29 major cities was 32000 units, an increase of 22.1% over the first week; In 11 major cities, 9000 sets of second-hand houses were sold, an increase of 51.1% over the first week; Compared with the first week, the growth rates of new housing and second-hand housing transactions in first tier cities were 5.6% and 61.4% respectively; Compared with the first week, the growth rates of new housing and second-hand housing transactions in second tier cities were 57.6% and 46.9% respectively. The inventory increased compared with last week, and the inventory sales were the same as last week. As of the second week, the inventory in 15 major cities was 1233000 sets, an increase of 1000 sets compared with the first week; The stock to sales ratio was 12.9 months, unchanged from the first week. The land market transfer heat this week was the same as last week. In the second week, a total of 1 piece of land was traded in 26 major cities, which was the same as that in the first week. The amount of land transfer increased. In the second week, the land transfer fee of 26 major cities was 320 million yuan, an increase of 270 million yuan compared with the first week. The average premium rate decreased. The average premium rate of land transaction was 0.0%, down 0.5 percentage points from the first week. The number of land flow photos is 0.
Announcement of key companies. The directors and senior executives of Shanghai New Huang Pu Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600638) , Financial Street Holdings Co.Ltd(000402) , Yango Group Co.Ltd(000671) have been transferred. Beijing Capital Development Co.Ltd(600376) , Shanghai Shimao Co.Ltd(600823) , Metro Land Corporation Ltd(600683) , Tande Co.Ltd(600665) released the performance report for December 2021. Reduction of shares of the company by Huay Uan Property Co.Ltd(600743) , Guanghui Logistics Co.Ltd(600603) , Shenzhen Wongtee International Enterprise Co.Ltd(000056) , China Union Holdings Ltd(000036) major shareholders
Investment proposal and investment object
After the rise of A-share real estate stocks since the new year of 2022, investors hope to see more real estate support policies from the bottom up. Investors’ lack of short-term patience led to the correction of real estate stocks this week. At the same time, low and medium rated real estate enterprises are still in the dilemma of debt crisis, and the existing policies can not improve their credit status. At present, the industry fundamentals are inertial downward and the policy is expected to be more relaxed, with high certainty. Under this combination of fundamentals and policies, we are only optimistic about the valuation repair of housing prices with financial security. We are optimistic about the first-line leaders with stable performance, and recommend Poly Real Estate (600048, buy) and Vanke A (00000 2, buy); Second tier leaders with flexible performance are recommended Gemdale Corporation(600383) (600383, buy) and Longhu group (00960, buy). At the same time, we are optimistic about the property management and business management industries with rapid growth and strong consumption attributes. We recommend Country Garden Service (06098, buy), poly property (06049, buy), China Merchants Property Operation & Service Co.Ltd(001914) (001914, overweight), New Dazheng Property Group Co.Ltd(002968) (002968, buy), rongchuang service (01516, buy), Xingsheng Commerce (06668, buy) and Baolong Commerce (09909, buy).
Risk tips
Sales were significantly lower than expected. The counter cyclical policy was less than expected. Interest rates have risen significantly
