\u3000\u3000 Beijing United Information Technology Co.Ltd(603613) (603613)
Event:
The State Council recently issued the "14th five year plan" for the development of digital economy. Qiushi magazine published an important article by the general secretary of Xi Jinping constantly strengthening, optimizing and expanding China's digital economy. Developing digital economy has become one of the number one projects.
Key investment points
The 14th five year plan for the development of digital economy was implemented, and the penetration rate of industrial Internet platforms increased significantly, exceeding expectations
The quantitative indicators in the plan are the most concerned. The core output value of digital economy has increased from 7.8% to 10%. Under the new normal, the CAGR of digital economy is expected to reach 10% +, which is much higher than the current GDP growth rate. The application penetration rate of industrial Internet platform has become the biggest highlight, which should be increased from 14.7% to 45%, and CAGR exceeded 25%, exceeding expectations.
The significant increase in penetration requires the deepening of connection. It is expected that the digitization of middle waist enterprises will become the focus
According to the data of the Ministry of industry and information technology, there are more than 100 influential industrial Internet platforms and more than 76 million sets of connected equipment. In the future, the connection of industrial Internet platforms will gradually go deep into small and medium-sized enterprises from large state-owned enterprises and central enterprises in the past. We expect that the digitization of small and medium-sized (at least middle waist) enterprises is expected to become one of the key points to improve the penetration rate.
To vigorously promote industrial digitization, the primary consideration is the "business" logic, which needs to be done step by step
The fifth part of the plan clearly points out to vigorously promote the industrial digital transformation. We believe that, especially for the digital landing of small and medium-sized enterprises, the primary consideration is "business logic". First, solve the problems of "not turning", "not turning" and "not daring to turn", and improve efficiency and digital transformation on the basis of "making money" of small and medium-sized enterprises; Through transactions, Guolian has provided technology, capital, talents, data and other resources to help the digital transformation of small and medium-sized enterprises and provide supporting ecological services and solutions. We believe that the company is an "industrial router".
Cloud factory mode has become one of the landing modes of industrial digitization, which is expected to provide new growth power for the League of nations
Cloud factory is actively practicing and promoting the mode of "deep supply chain + digital factory" and has been preliminarily verified.
1) the digital implementation of industrial enterprises involves many links such as procurement, production and sales, especially the confidentiality requirements of process control and core formula. Only companies with long-term healthy and stable transactions and high trust with enterprises can cooperate with industrial enterprises to implement digital transformation. Guolian's Duoduo platform is the best carrier. Starting from the transaction, Guolian plays the role of integrator and importer of digital transformation of industrial software (cooperation with central control, Lenovo, etc.).
2) for Guolian itself, digitization can deepen the in-depth binding cooperation and trust with upstream suppliers, improve their supply scale on Duoduo platform, increase the market share of Duoduo platform and improve barriers.
3) at present, 20 companies have signed contracts, and 100 cloud factories will be realized in the next two years. Each company is expected to generate 500-1 billion transaction volume, which is expected to support 50-100 billion transaction scale.
Profit forecast and Valuation:
We believe that the company is one of the best practitioners of industrial digitization and the leader of industrial Internet. It is estimated that the revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be 37.28/67.2/114.33 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 117.3% / 80.2% / 70.1%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 573 / 9.5/1.61 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 88.3% / 65.3% / 70%; At present, it corresponds to 39.9x in 2022, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk warning: the repurchase rate decreases; The growth rate of new customers decreased; Cloud factory business is less than expected
