\u3000\u3000 Chengdu Wintrue Holding Co.Ltd(002539) (002539)
The gross profit margin of main products increased year-on-year, the company’s performance greatly exceeded expectations, and maintained the “buy” rating
According to the announcement of the company, the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be RMB 1.200-1.250 billion in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 140.70% – 150.72%; Corresponding to Q4 single quarter of 2021, the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 419-469 million yuan, with a month on month increase of 11.20-24.46% and a year-on-year increase of 227.59% – 266.65%. In 2021, the gross profit margin of the company’s compound fertilizer, combined alkali, phosphorus chemical and other products increased year-on-year, and the company’s performance greatly exceeded expectations. We increased the company’s profit forecast from 2021 to 2023. It is estimated that the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company will be 1.234 (+ 1.76), 1.257 (+ 0.03) and 1.363 (+ 0.04) billion yuan respectively, and EPS will be 122 (+ 0.17), 1.24 (+ 0.00) and 1.35 (+ 0.00) yuan / share respectively. The current share price corresponds to PE of 11.2, 11.0 and 10.2 times respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
The prices of phosphorus chemical, combined alkali and compound fertilizer products rose, and the company’s Q4 performance hit a new high in a single quarter
According to Baichuan Yingfu, wind and Zhuo Chuang information, the average market price of Q4 yellow phosphorus in 2021 was 38871 yuan / ton, a month on month increase of + 23.10%; The average prices of light alkali and ammonium chloride were 3246 and 1136 yuan / ton respectively, with a month on month ratio of + 42.81% and + 5.62% respectively. The company has an annual production capacity of 600000 tons of yellow phosphorus and 600000 tons of combined alkali, which fully benefits from the rise in the prices of yellow phosphorus and combined alkali products. Affected by the “two carbon” policy and the rise of coal, the price of Q4 chemical fertilizer continued to rise in 2021. The average price and month on month variation range of monoammonium phosphate, urea, potassium chloride and compound fertilizer were 3196 (- 2.02%), 2653 (+ 1.30%), 3188 (+ 0.83%) and 3228 (+ 1.95%) yuan / ton respectively. In 2021, the main business boom of Q4 company will remain high, and its performance may reach a new high in a single quarter.
The company plans to raise more funds to build the production capacity of iron phosphate and compound fertilizer, so as to open up the future growth space
The company plans to raise no more than RMB 2.5 billion through non-public offering of shares to build the “linkage production project of comprehensive utilization of phosphate rock resources to produce new energy materials and slow-release and controlled-release compound fertilizer”. The total investment of the project is expected to be RMB 4.595 billion, and it plans to invest RMB 2 billion to build an annual capacity of 350000 tons of battery grade iron phosphate and 600000 tons of slow-release and controlled-release compound fertilizer in Songzi City, Hubei Province, And front-end supporting capacity and facilities. The company continues to deepen the advantages of the whole chemical fertilizer industry chain, seize the favorable period of iron phosphate development and extend the industry chain. At the same time, Ms. Mou Jiayun, the chairman of the company and the concerted actor of the actual controller, plans to subscribe for the shares of this non-public offering, with a total subscription capital of no less than 200 million yuan, demonstrating confidence in the future development of the project and the company. We are firmly optimistic about the future growth of the company.
Risk tip: the project construction progress is less than expected, the product price has fallen sharply, the macro-economy has declined, etc.
