\u3000\u3000 Miracle Automation Engineering Co.Ltd(002009) (002009)
Key investment points
Event: the company announced the performance forecast for 2021. In 2021, the company is expected to realize the net profit attributable to the parent company of 150 million yuan to 180 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 145.71% to 194.85%, the net profit deducted from non attributable to the parent company of 92 million yuan to 116 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 1915.95% to 2441.85%, and the basic earnings per share of 0.40 yuan / share to 0.49 yuan / share.
The performance increased by 146% to 195%, and the lithium battery cycle sector increased significantly. In 2021, the company is expected to realize net profit attributable to parent company of RMB 150 million to RMB 180 million, with a year-on-year increase of 145.71% to 194.85%. It is expected to realize net profit deducting non attributable to parent company of RMB 92 million to RMB 116 million, with a year-on-year increase of 1915.95% to 2441.85%. It is expected that the basic earnings per share of RMB 0.40 to RMB 0.49 per share. The performance changes are mainly due to 1) significant growth of lithium battery cycle sector; 2) Commodity prices rose, and raw material cost pressure compressed the gross profit space of intelligent equipment manufacturing and heavy industrial equipment sector; 3) Due to the implementation of the restricted stock incentive plan in 2021, the amortization expense recognized is RMB 14.56 million.
The revenue and profit of lithium battery cycle sector increased significantly year-on-year, and the development of capacity expansion accelerated. Throughout 2021, the recovery volume and capacity scale of the company's lithium battery cycle sector increased, the product structure was optimized, and the strong demand for power battery materials led to the continuous rise of cobalt, lithium and other metal prices. The core wholly-owned subsidiary jintaige achieved an operating revenue / net profit of 560 million yuan / 77 million yuan in the interim report of 2021 and 882 million yuan / 145 million yuan (Unaudited) in the first three quarters of 2021. The performance growth trend of the sector is good. Accelerated capacity expansion of lithium battery cycle sector & Extension of industrial chain. The company announced the investment plan for 2021-2024, which is used for the expansion of battery recovery and regeneration, technical transformation and deepening of industrial chain. Among them, 1) the production expansion and technical transformation project of jintaige has increased the treatment capacity of waste batteries from 20000 tons / year to 50000 tons / year, with a capacity elasticity of 150%. It is expected to be put into operation in 2022q1; 2) Ternary precursor project: build 30000 T / a ternary precursor capacity and 12000 T / a lithium carbonate capacity, including 50000 t waste lithium iron phosphate disassembly and recycling production line. It is expected that phase I 2023q4 and phase II 2024q4 will be put into operation, and the business will be expanded to "battery recovery - element extraction - material manufacturing".
The collaborative advantages of waste battery recycling channels appear, and the strategic cooperation vehicle enterprises jointly promote the reuse of batteries. Power battery recycling has a long cycle and high boom. We expect that the recycling channel may become the key to competition, and the vehicle enterprises will grasp the core position of the channel. The company actively cooperates with vehicle enterprises to promote power battery recycling. On September 10, 2021, the company announced that it had signed a cooperation framework agreement with FAW assets, a wholly-owned subsidiary of FAW Group, to establish in-depth cooperation in the fields of power battery recycling. This time, it will establish the first power battery recycling base in Changchun, and successively establish multiple resource recycling bases in the main customer concentration areas and key cities of FAW Group. The company has been deeply engaged in the automobile industry chain. Previously, it has established a close cooperation relationship with FAW assets for many years, and the channel synergy advantage is gradually reflected.
Profit forecast: the high prospect of battery recycling industry is coming. The company is actively layout, capacity expansion and industrial chain deepening. We maintain the expected net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 156 / 236 / 350 million from 2021 to 2023, EPS of RMB 0.41/0.62/0.92/share from 2021 to 2023, and the current corresponding PE is 46x / 30x / 20x, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: the sales of new energy vehicles are less than expected, the project progress is less than expected, and the competition is intensified
