\u3000\u3000 Dbappsecurity Co.Ltd(688023) (688023)
Event:
The company issued the annual performance forecast for 2021 on the afternoon of January 16, 2022.
Comments:
The operating revenue of the company achieved rapid growth, and the gross profit margin increased steadily compared with the first three quarters
In 2021, the company is expected to achieve an operating revenue of RMB 1.812-1.839 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 37% – 39%, and the gross profit margin has steadily increased compared with the first three quarters. The main reason for the rapid growth of operating revenue is that the company continues to strengthen market development, deepen product and service structure, and continuously improve its competitiveness in various fields: 1) in terms of products, the revenue scale of the company’s cloud security platform and big data security platform continues to grow, and the revenue of new products such as data security and Xinchuang cloud security is not high, but it shows a high growth trend; 2) In terms of services, the revenue of security services increased rapidly, and the scale of SaaS increased steadily; 3) In terms of industry customers, in addition to traditional advantageous industries, the company’s market share in finance, operators, medical treatment, education, enterprises and other customers shows a further upward trend.
The net profit is affected by R & D and sales expenses, and it is expected to create new growth points after the product matures
In 2021, the company expects to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of 10-15 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 88.82% – 92.54%; It is estimated that the net profit deduction from non parent company will be 74-79 million yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 161.28% – 165.42%, mainly because the company’s new strategic direction is in the investment stage, and the total R & D expenses and sales expenses are about 1.168-1.198 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of about 55.52% – 59.51%. The relevant investment benefits have not been reflected in the current period. We believe that with the continuous maturity of new product technology and the gradual formation of scale effect, the new direction will continue to create new profit growth points for the company. In addition, the current share based payment amount of the company is about 91 million yuan and the investment income is about 89 million yuan, which has a certain impact on the deduction of non parent net profit.
In order to meet the needs of laws and regulations, the company continued to increase investment and enhance competitiveness
In order to meet the huge demand generated by laws and regulations and the company’s long-term development needs, the company continues to strengthen investment: 1) data security: continue to promote the data security technical framework “Cape” and develop more than ten data security series products represented by aiguard data security management platform; 2) Cybercrime: increase investment in the construction of new cybercrime intelligence and the supporting capacity for the investigation and combating of new cybercrime; 3) Xinchuang products: the market share has expanded rapidly, and the multi cloud and multi-core integrated multi-element management security operation platform and situation awareness products continue to land; 4) A new generation of intelligent gateway: the basic capacity is greatly improved, and the single machine performance can reach 230gbps; 5) Internet of vehicles security: increase investment in Internet of vehicles security testing and research capabilities, interpretation of safety regulations and standards, safety testing, safety protection products, safety laboratory construction, etc.
Investment advice and profit forecast
With the implementation of policies such as network security law and ISO 2.0, the network security industry has ushered in a high business cycle. Referring to the annual performance forecast for 2021, the operating revenue forecast for 2021-2023 is slightly adjusted to RMB 1.827, 2.557 and 3.510 billion, the net profit attributable to the parent is adjusted to RMB 13, 204 and 348 million, and the EPS is RMB 0.16, 2.60 and 4.43/share, corresponding to 142295, 87.37 and 51.20 times of PE. At present, the company’s income volume is small, there are many expenses invested, and the net profit is obviously affected. It is more reasonable to adopt PS valuation method. Since its listing, the company’s PS has mainly operated between 9-25 times. Considering the decline of the company’s profitability, the target PS for 2022 has been reduced to 10 times, and the target price is 325.68 yuan. Maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk tips
Covid-19 recurrent pneumonia; The implementation of policies such as equal assurance 2.0 is lower than expected; New product R & D and marketing are lower than expected; The industry competition intensifies and the overall profitability of the industry decreases.
