\u3000\u3000 Beijing Huafeng Test & Control Technology Co.Ltd(688200) (688200)
On January 16, Beijing Huafeng Test & Control Technology Co.Ltd(688200) released the performance forecast. The company expects to realize the net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 422-465 million in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 111.95% - 133.54%.
2021q4 performance meets expectations, and the rhythm of downstream acceptance affects the apparent profit. In 2021, the net profit attributable to the parent company in Q4 was RMB 111-154 million, with a year-on-year increase of 77.45% - 146% and a month-on-month decrease of 5.50% - 31.92%, mainly due to the late rhythm of customer acceptance and payment, which has been the case in Q4 over the years. In addition, the slight increase of relevant bonus expenses at the end of the year also has an impact. We believe that the actual performance of the company is expected to be close to the upper limit.
Industrial orders are stable, and the logic of the industry is strong. From the perspective of prosperity, the recent sealed test orders of downstream consumer IC are weak, but the industrial demand is still booming, and Q4 and January are generally the low points of the industry. We think it will gradually pick up in the future. Moreover, the downstream sealing and testing plant Tongfu Microelectronics Co.Ltd(002156) starts the fixed growth plan again, indicating that the industry demand is still strongly supported. More importantly, we emphasize that the company benefits from the rise of Chinese IC design manufacturers, and the long-term growth logic is stronger than the business cycle. At present, the proportion of design customers has increased to 40%, benefiting from the trend of self built test projects by downstream customers such as Shengbang. There is no doubt about the growth of the company.
New products exceeded expectations and opened up market space. The company's SOC tester sts8300 has accounted for more than 15% of the revenue, and is currently continuing to promote the upgrade of the test dominant frequency. The research and development of the 200-400mhz test dominant frequency board has been completed. We expect that the company's new platform above 800MHz is also expected to be launched in 22 years, which can be compared with the standard tirea 93k, and the research and development progress is much higher than the previous expectation. More importantly, after the launch of the new platform, the market space faced by the company can reach the level of US $3-4 billion, and the ceiling moves up.
IGBT and SiC high-power test are leading in the world, and the downstream demand is beginning to break out. The company's sts8200 testing machine can also be used for high-power testing such as IGBT, SiC and Gan. With the high prosperity of the downstream new energy market, it is ushering in rapid volume. At present, IGBT, SiC and other test models account for more than 15% of the company's sts8200 revenue, covering a series of leading customers such as Navitas, innosecco, Sanan Optoelectronics Co.Ltd(600703) and far ahead in the market.
Investment suggestion: we expect the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021, 22 and 23 to be RMB 447, 616 and 868 million respectively, and the corresponding current price (closing price on January 17, 2022) PE to be 56, 41 and 29 times respectively. We are optimistic about the company's leading position in the field of testing machines, and SOC Test and third-generation semiconductor test will open long-term growth space for the company. Maintain a "recommended" rating.
Risk warning: product R & D risk / industry prosperity decline risk / market competition risk.
