\u3000\u3000 Chengdu Wintrue Holding Co.Ltd(002539) (002539)
Event: on January 17, the company released the annual performance forecast for 2021. In 2021, the company expects to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 1.20-1.25 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 141% - 151%; It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company after deducting non-profit is RMB 1.128-1.178 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 161% - 173%. Among them, 2021q4 company is expected to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of 419-469 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 227% - 267% and a month-on-month increase of 11.2% - 24.5%.
The volume and price of main products increased simultaneously, and the company's performance exceeded expectations. Thanks to the increase in sales and prices of the company's alkali products and compound fertilizer products, the gross profit margin of various businesses increased, and the performance growth of the company in 2021 exceeded expectations. According to Ifind data, the wholesale price index of compound fertilizer in China in 2021q4 increased by 37.07% year-on-year and 10.54% month on month; The price of monoammonium phosphate increased by 66.93% year-on-year and decreased slightly by 1.75% month on month; The price of soda ash increased by 72.24% year-on-year and 38.10% month on month; The price of ammonium chloride increased by 89.51% year-on-year and 8.62% month on month. While the product price continues to rise, the integration of the company's own phosphorus chemical industry chain continues to deepen, and the self-sufficiency rate of raw materials continues to improve. The company can effectively control the production cost and promote the synchronous increase of the company's product gross profit margin.
The production capacity of compound fertilizer has been continuously expanded to enhance the company's market competitiveness. At present, the company has a compound fertilizer production capacity of 5.1 million tons / year. At the same time, it plans to add a new fertilizer production capacity of 850000 tons / year in Songzi, Hubei and Changji, Xinjiang, and build a water-soluble fertilizer production capacity of 100000 tons / year in Changji, Xinjiang. In addition, the company is actively building a new slow-release compound fertilizer project, and has arranged a production capacity of 600000 T / a new slow-release compound fertilizer in Songzi, Hubei Province, which is expected to be completed in December 2023. A new slow-release compound fertilizer project with an annual output of 800000 tons is also planned in Yicheng city, Hubei Province. After the project is completed, the company's competitive advantage will be further enhanced. In addition, the company is also actively promoting the handling of mining rights in niuniuzhai north mining area, Leibo County, Sichuan Province. With the advantages of industrial chain integration and the high prosperity of phosphorus chemical industry, the company's profitability and market competitiveness will continue to improve.
Large scale layout of iron phosphate and supporting capacity to open up future growth space. At present, the company has planned 450000 T / a iron phosphate and related upstream raw material production capacity projects in Songzi, Hubei and Yicheng, Hubei. On January 14, the company announced the 2.5 billion yuan fixed increase plan for the "linkage production project of new energy materials and slow and controlled release compound fertilizer by comprehensive utilization of phosphate rock resources" (350000 T iron phosphate and supporting projects). The above-mentioned production capacity projects of the company also support the linkage production of compound fertilizer, and use the by-product low-grade phosphoric acid and waste heat to produce compound fertilizer. The cascade utilization of phosphoric acid with different purity is fully considered, which is expected to realize the full utilization of chemical resources and energy. At the same time, under the strong demand in the field of new energy, the large-scale capacity layout of iron phosphate will fully open the future growth space of the company.
Profit forecast, valuation and rating: the prices of the company's main products such as compound fertilizer continued to rise, and the performance exceeded expectations. We believe that phosphorus chemical related products will remain at a medium high level in the future, and the company is expected to continue to benefit. We raised the company's profit forecast. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be 12.12 (up 15.9%) / 13.38 (up 11.0%) / 1.518 billion yuan (up 10.4%), maintaining the company's "buy" rating.
Risk tips: fixed increase landing risk, product price fluctuation risk, less than expected capacity release, safety production and environmental protection risk.
