\u3000\u3000 Shenergy Company Limited(600642) (600642)
Event: the company announced the power generation in 2021, and the main increment of coal power and scenery contribution. In 2021, the company completed power generation of 48.477 billion kwh, with a year-on-year increase of 23.18%. Among them, 36.946 billion kwh of coal power was completed, with a year-on-year increase of 23.73%; Natural gas power generation completed 5.975 billion kwh, a year-on-year decrease of 5.16%; Wind power completed 4.247 billion kwh, a year-on-year increase of 59.48%; Photovoltaic and distributed power generation completed 1.309 billion kwh, a year-on-year increase of 144.67%. In 2021, the company's on grid electricity will be 44.765 billion kwh, the average on grid electricity price will be 0.443 yuan / kWh (including tax), and the electricity traded in the market will be 15.446 billion kwh. The main reason for the year-on-year increase of the company's power generation is the strong demand. At the same time, coal power and scenery contribute the main increment. The power generation of the company's five coal-fired power plants, including waisan, waier, Wujing, Huaibei Shenwan and Wuzhong thermal power, increased by 18.95%, 19.28%, 37.74%, 4.06% and 9.73% respectively compared with the same period last year.
The installed structure continued to be optimized, with scenery accounting for nearly 25% at the end of the year. By the end of 2021, the company's holding installed capacity was 13.9244 million KW, a year-on-year increase of 10.27%. Among them, coal power is 7.05 million KW, accounting for 50.63%; Gas and electricity 3.4256 million KW, accounting for 24.60%; Wind power is 2.0877 million KW, accounting for 14.99%; Photovoltaic power generation is 1320600 kW, accounting for 9.48%; The distributed power supply is 40500 kW, accounting for 0.29%. In terms of increment, the installed capacity of coal power and gas power remained unchanged, and the wind power, photovoltaic and distributed power supply increased by 6549, 609 and 32500 kW respectively. Increased by 45.71%, 85.58% and 406.25% respectively. In addition, the incremental installed capacity mainly contributed in the fourth quarter, with a new holding installed capacity of 9014500 kW in the fourth quarter, of which Jiangsu Rudong 350000 kW offshore wind power project was completed and put into operation in November 2021, which will contribute to the company's performance in 2022. The company plans to hold an installed capacity of 22-26 million KW by the end of the "14th five year plan", of which the installed capacity of non-aqueous renewable energy will increase by 8-10 million KW, that is, the new energy will increase by 1.6-2 million KW per year.
Investment advice. It is estimated that the company's revenue in 2021, 2022 and 2023 will be RMB 225.44/250.84/29.111 billion respectively, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be RMB 2.604/34.12/3.868 billion respectively, the EPS will be RMB 0.53/0.7/0.79 respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 12.58/9.6/8.47 times respectively. Considering that the company's traditional coal-fired power generation business has cost advantages, the gas power business is relatively stable, the company's new energy planning is large and the growth rate is fast, and the future performance contribution mainly depends on new energy such as scenery, the company is given a "recommended" rating of 13-15 times PE in 2022, with a reasonable price range of 9.1-10.5 yuan for the first time.
Risk warning: coal price rise risk, power consumption is less than expected, and market-oriented transaction price risk.
