\u3000\u3000 Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) (300751)
Event overview
The company released the performance forecast for 2021. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 580 million yuan to 680 million yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 47.05% - 72.40%. The net profit deducted from non parent company was 540 million yuan to 640 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 59.54% - 89.08%. The overall performance of the company is in line with our expectations.
Analysis and judgment:
The cost reduction and efficiency increase route of hjt is clear, and the company's hjt equipment has significant advantages. Benefiting from the gradual introduction of technologies such as "microcrystalline technology + smbb + silver clad copper + domestic silver paste + wafer slicing", the industrialization process of hjt battery is expected to accelerate. We expect that the production expansion scale of hjt battery will be about 20-30gw in 22 years and 70gw in 23 years. At present, the photoelectric conversion efficiency of the company and sundrive on the full-size single crystal hjt battery has reached 25.54%, creating a new world record and at the leading level in the industry; The introduction of full opening Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) battery steel sector printing technology plays an important role in reducing the consumption of silver paste and the cost of heterojunction battery. In addition, the company signed an order for 400mwhjt heterojunction battery whole line equipment with rec group. The company's heterojunction whole line equipment went abroad for the first time, and its products were comparable to overseas equipment. We believe that the company is expected to occupy a higher share by virtue of its advantages in the whole line.
OLED laser equipment has been recognized by key customers, and semiconductor equipment is advancing steadily. Relying on the technical advantages and customer base of high-speed and high-precision control technology and high-precision positioning technology, the company has successfully developed OLED panel laser equipment and semiconductor wafer laser slotting equipment with years of R & D technology accumulation. 1) OLED panel laser equipment: the company will supply two sets of independently developed OLED flexible screen bending laser cutting equipment for BOE's 6th generation AMOLED production line project, becoming the first enterprise in China to successfully develop this equipment. 2) Semiconductor wafer laser slotting equipment: the company's semiconductor wafer laser slotting equipment is used in the packaging stage. At present, the company has signed supply agreements with Jcet Group Co.Ltd(600584) , Sanan Optoelectronics Co.Ltd(600703) on semiconductor wafer laser slotting equipment, and signed trial orders with five other enterprises. At present, the laser slotting equipment independently developed by the company has been delivered Jcet Group Co.Ltd(600584) .
Investment suggestion: keep the previous performance forecast unchanged. We expect that the revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 33.06/42.22/5.751 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 44.7% / 27.7% / 36.2%, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be RMB 610 / 862 / 1.247 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 54.8% / 41.2% / 44.7%, the corresponding EPS will be RMB 5.65/7.98/11.55 respectively, the corresponding closing price of RMB 543.91/share on January 14, 2022, and the PE will be 96 / 68 / 47 times respectively. Maintain the "overweight" rating.
Risk tip: technological progress is less than expected, and the prosperity of downstream industries is less than expected.
