\u3000\u3000 China Energy Engineering Corporation Limited(601868) (601868)
Key investment points
In the whole year of 21, the number of new contracts increased by + 51% year-on-year, and the new energy infrastructure started as scheduled, with a year-on-year increase of 53%. The company has signed 872.6 billion yuan in 21 years, with a year-on-year increase of 51%, with a compound growth rate of 30% compared with 2019. In terms of business, the main business of engineering construction newly signed 800.9 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 46%, and all sub tracks are in full bloom: 1) among them, the data of new energy and comprehensive smart energy business (dominated by wind, light, storage and hydrogen) are bright. The newly signed contract amount in the whole year is 192.8 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 53%, and the proportion in engineering construction orders has increased from 23% in 20 years to 24% in 21 years; 2) The new contract value of traditional energy projects dominated by thermal power, hydropower, power transmission and transformation and nuclear power was 19.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22%; Quarterly, the newly signed contract amount of 21q1 / Q2 / Q3 / Q4 was 2439 / 2394 / 1091 / 280.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 91% / + 35% / + 5% / 67%. In terms of subregions, China / overseas signed 655.5/217.2 billion yuan in the whole year, a year-on-year increase of + 64% / 22%.
We believe that: the company's new signing exceeded expectations throughout the year and the new energy infrastructure started on schedule. On the one hand, it is the expansion of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) infrastructure demand space under the "double carbon" strategy. On the other hand, under the guidance of the "14th five year plan" development plan, the company's new energy infrastructure market share remains stable. We previously predicted that the annual investment of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) infrastructure in the "14th five year plan" will be about 650 billion yuan. As the national team of energy and power construction industry, the "14th five year plan" development plan clearly proposes to "rebuild a new energy construction with high-quality development in five years", obtain the orders and rhythm of new energy infrastructure projects as scheduled, and the future performance growth will be highly flexible and predictable!
Comprehensive transportation / urban construction increased by + 230% / + 11% year-on-year. Under the background of steady growth, order carry forward is expected to accelerate
The newly signed contract amount of the company's comprehensive transportation business (highway, railway, urban rail, airport, port and waterway) in 21 years was 145.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 229.6%; Urban construction was steady, with a new contract amount of 167.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.3%. The central economic work conference held in December 2021 set the tone of "stability" in 2022, with the policy force appropriately ahead and moderately ahead of schedule to carry out infrastructure investment. According to the economic data of December 21, consumption recovered weakly and real estate investment further explored. We believe that the logic of stable growth of infrastructure investment in 22 years has been further strengthened. With the positioning of "first-class infrastructure investor" and "first-class general contractor" and the ability to promote engineering projects, the company is expected to accelerate the construction orders of urban construction and comprehensive transportation projects.
The compound growth rate of performance is 15%. The current valuation is low and the safety margin is sufficient
The company's "14th five year plan" development plan clearly states that "by 2025, the total revenue, total profit, newly signed contract amount and total assets will be doubled compared with 2020, and a new energy construction with high-quality development will be rebuilt in five years". We expect that in the 21-23 years, the company's net profit attributable to the parent company will be RMB 6.8 billion, 9.6 billion and 11 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 27.49%, 13.66% and 14.45%. Considering that the performance of 21 years is included in the minority shareholders' equity of Gezhouba in the first three quarters, the compound annual growth rate of future performance is expected to exceed 15%. The company corresponds to 11 times PE in 22 years. From the perspective of growth and prosperity, the valuation is low and the safety margin is sufficient!
Profit forecast and valuation
It is estimated that the company's operating revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be 303.1 billion yuan, 345.5 billion yuan and 391 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 12.11%, 14.02% and 13.17%. The net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be 6.767 billion yuan, 9.603 billion yuan and 10.991 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 44.89%, 41.91% and 14.46%, corresponding to EPS of 0.16, 0.23 and 0.26 yuan. The current price corresponding to PE is 16.6, 11.7 and 10.2 times. Maintain the "overweight" rating.
Risk tip: China's UHV and new energy investment and construction are not as expected; The company's new energy investment is less than expected; "One belt, one road" along the country's energy and electricity construction projects are not as fast as expected.
