\u3000\u3000 Zhejiang Gongdong Medical Technology Co.Ltd(605369) (605369)
Key investment points
Event: on January 17, 2022, the company released the annual performance forecast for 2021. In 2021, the company realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of about 315 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 39%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 302 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 40%, realizing rapid growth as a whole. Related non recurring gains and losses are mainly land sales revenue generated in the first half of the year and annual government subsidies.
Under the negative impact of plant relocation, Q4 performance still maintained a good growth momentum. We expect the company to achieve a net profit of about 63.05 million yuan in the fourth quarter of 2021, a year-on-year decrease of about 5.77%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was about 64.3 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of about 0.94%. In the fourth quarter, due to the negative factors such as raised investment plant relocation, equipment commissioning, old plant decoration and transformation, the company's production capacity was limited, resulting in a year-on-year slowdown. Superimposed on the impact of relocation expenses and equity incentive expenses in the fourth quarter, the company still maintained a relatively good growth rate, the demand for downstream orders continued to be strong, and the net profit of non parent company was deducted to achieve a benign growth.
Routine business gradually returned to normality, and the orders of consumables related to covid-19 antigen detection increased significantly. 1. In terms of routine business, the relocation of the company's raised investment plant is progressing smoothly, and the production workshop has started trial production and trial orders. At present, it is progressing very smoothly, and the business is gradually normalized. It is expected to start the formal capacity climb in the first quarter of 22 years. 2. In covid-19 business, the company's epidemic related products include virus protection masks, virus sampling tubes and other directly beneficial products, as well as IVD consumables for molecular diagnosis and antigen diagnosis (such as pharyngeal swabs, reaction tubes and other plastic products). In the fourth quarter of 21, the epidemic situation in China was disturbed repeatedly, covid-19 epidemic broke out successively in Ningbo, Zhejiang and other places, and the demand for consumables products increased significantly; At the same time, China's covid-19 antigen self-test kit successively obtained FDA and CE certification in the fourth quarter, the procurement of relevant IVD consumables has increased, and the covid-19 business has improved.
Foreign IVD leading cooperation and the implementation of cell culture consumables are expected to maintain rapid growth in 22 years. 1. In terms of IVD consumables, the company has entered the supply chain of global top plastic consumables enterprises such as Thermo Fisher, Corning and IDEXX through ODM / OEM business model with the advantages of high cost performance products for many years, and the product performance has been highly recognized by the top customers in the industry. At present, the company is actively negotiating and communicating with overseas leaders in IVD industry, and is expected to implement substantive cooperation in the future to further open up growth space. 2. In terms of scientific research consumables, the company has previously had life science related consumables such as bacterial Petri dishes and straws, but it has not been produced and sold on a large scale due to tight production capacity and incomplete product line. At present, the company has completed the development of cell culture consumables, supplemented the life science series consumables, and prepared sufficient production capacity in the raised investment plant, We expect that life science related consumables are expected to grow rapidly from the beginning of 22 years.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: according to the performance forecast data, we fine tune the profit forecast. It is estimated that the company's revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 1104, 1437 and 1877 million (RMB 1004, 1295 and 1690 million before adjustment), with a year-on-year increase of 33.09%, 30.11% and 30.65%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be RMB 315, 406 and 508 million (RMB 303, 401 and 504 million before adjustment), with a year-on-year increase of 39.48% 28.84% and 25.05%, corresponding to EPS of 2.81, 3.62 and 4.53. Considering that the company is the leader of China's scarce customized IVD industry, it is expected to continue to grow rapidly in the next three years and maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk warning events: risk of new product R & D, risk of policy change, risk of intensified market competition, risk that sales growth is less than expected, risk that the public information used in the research report may lag behind or not be updated in time, etc.
