\u3000\u3000 Jiangshan Oupai Door Industry Co.Ltd(603208) (603208)
Key investment points
Event: Recently, the company's integrated door and wall cabinet products were launched, and we further sorted out the company's investment logic. In 2021, affected by the rhythm of completion payment collection of real estate developers, the company's performance growth and valuation performance were suppressed, but the current operation of the company has changed greatly: 1) the margin of payment collection of real estate developers is better, and the cash flow is expected to improve at the bottom; 2) With the increase of market share of leading real estate developers, the competition pattern of big B project business is improving; 3) In 2022, the proportion of home decoration business is expected to increase rapidly. The new home decoration business is a cash flow business in the full payment after delivery mode. The increase and rapid growth of the proportion of home decoration business is expected to drive the value reconstruction of the company, and the valuation and performance are expected to usher in a new era in 22 years.
The bottom of big B business improved, the pressure on cash flow weakened and the market was basically stable. In 2021, affected by the slowdown of the completion rhythm of the real estate developers, the delivery of the company's factories lagged behind. In addition, due to the reduction of the supply of individual real estate developers with a long accounting period, the growth rate of big B business fell in the second half of the year. Through deep cultivation of high-quality real estate developers, the company has become an important supplier of Vanke and poly wooden doors, reflecting the company's strong production, manufacturing and landing service capabilities. New development of China Resources, Longhu and other customers, and there are abundant contract orders in hand at present; The new category of entry doors and fire doors are expected to contribute new increment in 22 years. With the increasing concentration of real estate developers and the gradual relaxation of credit policies, the company's brand and stable supply advantages will be further highlighted, and the supply pattern and market share are expected to increase with the real estate leader. At the same time, the company covers regional real estate developers by recruiting engineering agents. The number of engineering agents has increased significantly compared with 2021. While expanding the business boundary of big B, the cash flow continues to be optimized.
The home decoration business is expanding rapidly, and new channels enjoy a high ceiling. In the second half of 20 years, the company entered the new track of home decoration, the home decoration mode in 21 years gradually ran through, and the single month order receiving continued to grow. In the first three quarters, the distribution channel realized a revenue of 420 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 164.1%. The home decoration business gives full play to the company's production and manufacturing advantages, drives the transformation of dealers, cooperates with many small and medium-sized decoration enterprises by means of standard products and joint product follow-up, and establishes an offline service network. In terms of profit margin, in the long run, the cost rate of this model is low, and the long-term profitability is strong after the scale effect is brought into play. In terms of cash flow, the company has the advantage of bargaining with small B home decoration company, paying first and then delivering goods, with good cash flow.
Door and wall cabinet integration products are available, and the long-term incremental space of home decoration business can be expected. After opening the channel with the wooden door explosion products as the entrance, the company can import other categories such as standard cabinets, entry doors, fire doors and wallboards to small B home decoration company to meet the one-stop procurement needs of home decoration company, gradually form a platform advantage and increase category linkage and customer stickiness. At the beginning of 2022, the integrated door and wall cabinet products of "European style Gaoding · DK Yueran series" jointly launched by the company and well-known designers have been put on the market, with a lighter, luxurious and simple style, including living spaces such as porch, living room, master bedroom and guest bedroom. Compared with single wooden door products, the integrated door and wall cabinet products reduce the design and procurement difficulty of home decoration companies, and the integrated design improves the attractiveness of products to end consumers. In the long run, the pick-up volume of home decoration companies has sufficient room for growth.
Capacity reserves are sufficient to support order growth. At present, the company has three major production bases in Jiangshan, Zhejiang, Lankao, Henan and Chongqing. Among them, the Chongqing plant and Lianhuashan entrance project have been put into trial production. After receiving the order, the production capacity is expected to climb rapidly in 2022. In the medium and long term, the company has a production base of more than 1000 mu, and the plant has been in place. The equipment can be stationed according to the order receiving situation to support the rapid growth of orders.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions. It is estimated that the EPS from 2021 to 2023 will be 3.57 yuan, 5.21 yuan and 6.62 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 21 times, 14 times and 11 times respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: the risk of changes in the real estate market; The risk of intensified market competition; Risk that the production progress is less than expected; The risk that cash flow recovery is less than expected.
