\u3000\u3000 Beijing Roborock Technology Co.Ltd(688169) (688169)
The logic of domestic sales exceeding expectations has been gradually realized, optimistic about the quarterly improvement of export sales, and maintain the “buy” rating
In terms of domestic sales, it has continued to grow faster than expected since 2021q4. According to the business consultant, the Gmv of stone Ali channel in 2021q4 is + 140%; Cumulative Gmv + 277% since 2022. According to ovicloud, stone 2022w2 online sales accounted for 17%, up + 8.4pcts year-on-year. Driven by domestic sales, private brand revenue is expected to increase by more than 30% in 2021q4. Considering the strong demand for self-cleaning products, the price of G10, the main sales model in the first half of 2022, is higher than that of t7s series, and continues to be optimistic about the domestic sales performance. In terms of export, driven by the new S7 maxv series and q7max +, the demand for middle and high-end floor sweepers in LDs and the mitigation of shipping, we are optimistic about the improvement of export quarterly. Maintain the profit forecast. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 1.48/20.1/2.54 billion, EPS will be RMB 22.2/30.0/38.0, and the corresponding PE of the current stock price will be 42.1/31.1/24.6 times, maintaining the “buy” rating.
We have a different view from the market in view of some doubts about the company and industry
(1) in 2021, the proportion of self-cleaning products in China’s sweeper market increased significantly, and the head players showed that the strong was always strong. According to ovicloud, the sales volume of self-cleaning products in 2021m11 sweeper online channels accounts for 75%. The rising trend of the proportion of self-cleaning products in 2022 is expected to continue, and the higher average price drives the rapid growth of the industry scale. (2) Driven by the renewal demand and head brand, the proportion of medium and high-end LDS products is expected to increase. According to JS data, in 2021, the sales volume of price belt under $250 accounted for 40.2%, a year-on-year increase of -4.9pcts, while the sales volume of price belt between $500-750 accounted for + 5.9pcts. We expect that in 2022, shark will lay out medium and high-end LDS products, and with the joint promotion of stone, Ecovacs Robotics Co.Ltd(603486) , eufy and other brands, the overseas floor sweeper market is expected to be reshaped. (3) Beijing Roborock Technology Co.Ltd(688169) it failed to lead the market in 2021. The main reason is that the company focuses more on overseas in the target scenario of new products under the condition of simultaneous promotion of new products outside China. S7 Series (t7s Series in China) launched in the first half of 2021 is designed for overseas markets and fails to meet China’s self-cleaning needs. However, G10 launched in the second half of 2021 is only for the Chinese market; In 2022, the S7 maxv series products launched by ces for overseas markets have comprehensive functions and leading parameters, which fully verified the company’s leading ability. We believe that separate R & D from China and abroad from the second half of 2021 will help the company improve its ability to capture market opportunities and better achieve leadership outside China.
Risk tip: industry competition intensifies; Shortage of raw material supply; Increased risk of overseas epidemic
