\u3000\u3000 Qingdao Gaoce Technology Co.Ltd(688556) (688556)
Key investment points
Qingdao Gaoce Technology Co.Ltd(688556) : high hard and brittle material cutting faucet covering the field of Pan semiconductor
Since its establishment in 2006, Qingdao Gaoce Technology Co.Ltd(688556) has continuously expanded its application scenarios around cutting technology. At present, it has created four business growth curves of “tire detection + photovoltaic material cutting + semiconductor, magnetic material and sapphire cutting + chip OEM”. Benefiting from the large-scale expansion of downstream silicon wafer enterprises in recent years, the demand for silicon wafer slicing equipment and slicing consumables has increased rapidly. The company’s operating revenue has increased from 150 million yuan in 2016 to 750 million yuan in 2020, with a CAGR of 50% in 2016-2020 and 970 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2021q1-q3, a year-on-year increase of + 92%; The net profit attributable to the parent company increased from 5.89 million yuan in 2016 to 58.86 million yuan in 2020. The net profit attributable to the parent company CAGR in 2016-2020 reached 77.8%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company in the first three quarters of 2021q1-q3 reached 112 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 177.24%.
The demand for cutting equipment & consumables is increasing rapidly, the advantages of high measurement technology are significant, and enjoy a high market share
The expansion of silicon wafer factories has driven the demand for cutting equipment and consumables. According to our calculation, the total market space of cutting equipment and consumables from 2021 to 2025 is about 23 billion yuan and 26 billion yuan respectively. Under the trend of large size, the core technical difficulties of slicing link lie in equipment compatibility and silicon wafer yield: first, most of the existing slicing equipment in the market can not be compatible with large sizes such as 182 and 210, which speeds up the update iteration of slicer; Second, the fragment rate of large size is higher than that of small size, and the yield of large size slices of some manufacturers is low. Under the trend of slicing, slicing is prone to debris, edge collapse, scratch, TTV, line mark, bending, edge warpage and other problems, which has high requirements for equipment and technology. In 2020, the company launched a new generation of slicing equipment with adjustable wheelbase for large-size silicon wafer cutting to meet the cutting needs of 166mm, 182mm, 210mm and other silicon wafers. For the possible half piece process in the future, the company further solves the problem of thin wire (~ 40) through smaller wheelbase transformation μ m) , half size cutting debris and other problems. In the future, the company is expected to feed the diamond line business through cutting equipment to form a development pattern of “equipment + material” two wheel drive.
Enter the chip OEM, release the performance flexibility, specialization and improve the efficiency of the industrial chain
For the two types of customers of silicon wafer factory and battery wafer factory, the chip OEM business of high test realizes cost reduction, efficiency increase and quality improvement through professional division of labor, and helps customers operate light assets at the same time. We expect the company to form 5GW capacity in 2021, 16GW capacity in 2022 and 35gw capacity in 2023. For gaotest, the chip OEM business can better convert the company’s R & D into revenue and profit, and fully enjoy the technical dividend. The profit source of chip OEM service is OEM fee + balance silicon wafer sales. (1) Under the optimistic assumption, Qingdao Gaoce Technology Co.Ltd(688556) 2021-2023 the GW revenue of slice OEM business is RMB 80 million, RMB 70 million and RMB 60 million respectively, and the gross profit margin is 53%, 42% and 35% respectively. (2) Under neutral assumptions, Qingdao Gaoce Technology Co.Ltd(688556) 2021-2023 GW revenue of slice OEM business is RMB 80 million, RMB 60 million and RMB 50 million respectively, and the gross profit margin is 48%, 37% and 27% respectively. (3) Under the pessimistic assumption, Qingdao Gaoce Technology Co.Ltd(688556) 2021-2023, the GW revenue of slice OEM business is RMB 70 million, RMB 50 million and RMB 50 million respectively, and the gross profit margin is 42%, 30% and 20% respectively.
Profit forecast and investment rating: the downstream photovoltaic industry has a high outlook, and the company continues to benefit as a leader in slicing equipment & consumables; At the same time, develop the chip OEM business, which is expected to usher in a new performance growth point. We estimate that the net profit of the company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 160 / 3.5/540 million respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 67 / 30 / 20x respectively. It will be rated as “overweight” for the first time.
Risk tip: the industry is affected by policy fluctuations, market competition risk and business expansion is less than expected.