\u3000\u3000 Beijing Huafeng Test & Control Technology Co.Ltd(688200) (688200)
Event:
Beijing Huafeng Test & Control Technology Co.Ltd(688200) released the performance forecast for 2021: it is expected that in 2021, the company will realize the net profit attributable to the parent company of 422-465 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 111.95% - 133.54%, and deduct the net profit not attributable to the parent company of 417-460 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 181.86% - 210.93%.
Key investment points:
The performance in 2021 is in line with expectations, and the leader of semiconductor test equipment is growing rapidly. According to the company's performance forecast, the company realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of 111-154 million yuan in the single quarter of 2021q4, with a year-on-year increase of 77.75% - 146.62%, and a net profit deducted from non attributable to the parent company of 97-140 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 195.20% - 325.56%, which is in line with market expectations. The growth of the company's performance is mainly due to the growth of industry demand and the improvement brought by the upgrading of the company's own product structure and capacity release. The company's non recurring profit and loss changes greatly. The main influencing factors are the income of the company's idle funds from purchasing financial products and the price of Tongfu Microelectronics Co.Ltd(002156) shares held by the company. From the perspective of industry trends, according to the latest semi forecast data, the global semiconductor equipment sales in 2021 will be increased to US $103 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 44.7%, and it is expected to continue to grow to US $114 billion in 2022. Among them, the semiconductor test equipment market of the company in 2021 is expected to reach US $7.79 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 29.62%, and it is expected to continue to grow to US $8.17 billion in 2022, As a leading enterprise of semiconductor back channel test equipment in China, the company has significant first mover advantages and will fully benefit from the growth of the industry and the continuous rise of the tide of equipment localization.
The product structure has been continuously optimized, the global brand influence has been gradually highlighted, and the future development of the company can be expected. The company's products cover a wide range of analog, power management chip, gallium nitride, silicon carbide and power module testing. In September 2021, the company's Tianjin production base was officially put into use. The production capacity of the company's main products sts8200 and sts8300 series increased significantly. Based on the combination of analog and digital analog, the company continued to extend to the SOC testing field and expand its growth space. In addition, The company's product structure continues to be optimized. The sts8300 platform equipped with SOC test module is booming in production and sales, and the sales proportion continues to increase. In addition, with the continuous growth of the company's product sales, the company's influence on customers has gradually increased. As of September 2021, the company has shipped more than 4000 units worldwide, and has obtained the supplier certification of a large number of well-known semiconductor manufacturers at home and abroad. At present, it is the main test equipment supplier of China's top three semiconductor sealing and testing manufacturers, and has entered the supplier system of the international sealing and testing market, It has installed capacity in Taiwan, Southeast Asia, the United States, Japan, South Korea, Europe and other places, and the proportion of overseas sales shows an upward trend. Driven by the good reputation of the company's stock products and brand influence, overseas expansion is expected to enter an accelerated period. Based on the current capital budget of global mainstream Fabs in 2022, we believe that the prosperity of semiconductor equipment industry in 2022 is still at a high level, the company has significant advantages in vertical integration of products, brands, R & D and industrial chain, and there is high certainty for sustainable growth in the future.
As a leading enterprise in China's semiconductor testing machine industry, the profit forecast and investment rating company will deeply cultivate the field of analog / digital analog hybrid chip testing machine, and layout the fields of SOC, power semiconductor and third-generation semiconductor testing equipment. Based on the original advantageous fields, the company will continue to expand categories and expand production capacity, which will fully benefit from the continuous high popularity of the industry and the general trend of equipment localization. Considering the impact of the company's non recurring profit and loss changes in 2021, we expect that the company's net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 457 / 785 / 1018 million respectively, the corresponding EPS will be RMB 7.45/12.80/16.59/share respectively, and the corresponding current PE valuation will be 55 / 32 / 25 times respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
The risk indicates that the downstream demand is less than the expected risk; Risk that the R & D Progress of new products is less than expected; Supply chain Instability Risk; Upstream cost escalation risk; Exchange rate fluctuation risk.
