\u3000\u3000 Shenzhen Xinyichang Technology Co.Ltd(688383) (688383)
Event overview
The company released the performance forecast for 2021, and realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of 220-235 million yuan in the whole year, with a year-on-year increase of 104.61% - 118.56%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 210-225 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 104.91% - 119.55%.
Analysis and judgment:
Performance grew rapidly and Q4 improved month on month. Quarterly, the net profit attributable to the parent company in Q4 was 63-78 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of about 58% - 95% and a month-on-month increase of about 11% - 37%, mainly because the company focused on the development main line of intelligent manufacturing equipment industry and continued to maintain its advantages in the industry, including traditional LED solid crystal machine, mini LED equipment, semiconductor equipment The income of capacitor aging test equipment increased significantly compared with the same period of last year.
The downstream continues to improve, and the semiconductor field opens up the company's growth space. 1) With the gradual maturity of the technical route of mini LED chip, the upstream chip manufacturers have stepped up the layout and mass production. At the same time, Samsung, LG, TCL, Xiaomi, Huawei and other enterprises have successively launched Mini LED backlight TV, and apple has launched iPad Pro products equipped with mini LED backlight screen. Mini LED is expected to usher in large-scale production. The company is the leader of LED solid crystal machine, which will fully benefit from the downstream expansion; 2) In the post Moore era, the semiconductor industry began to pay attention to the packaging link and further improve the chip performance by using advanced packaging methods such as flip chip, 3D packaging and system level packaging. In the future, the value of the packaging and testing link is expected to continue to increase. According to yole development, the global solid crystal machine market will be about US $1.389 billion in 2024, and the scale of the semiconductor solid crystal market will gradually expand, It is estimated that the semiconductor solid crystal machine market will reach US $1083 million by 2024. The packaging and testing industry continues to develop, and Chinese packaging and testing equipment enterprises usher in a good opportunity for import substitution. We believe that the company's solid crystal technology has been successfully extended from the LED field to the semiconductor field, and the company's semiconductor solid crystal machine is expected to continue to grow rapidly.
Investment advice
Considering the opportunities brought by the sharp increase in demand in downstream fields such as mini led and semiconductor, as well as the strong competitiveness of the company in the field of Pan semiconductor packaging, we maintain the profit forecast. It is estimated that the company's revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 1.123/15.40/2.040 billion, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be RMB 227/3.30/435 million, and the corresponding EPS will be RMB 2.23/3.23/4.25, Corresponding to the closing price of 118.00 yuan / share on January 17, 2022, PE is 53 / 37 / 28 times respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips
Important downstream fluctuations lead to changes in orders; The epidemic situation exceeded expectations and affected the supply of core components of the company; The progress of new product R & D or market development is less than expected.
