\u3000\u3000 Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) (300073)
Q4 non deduction performance increased significantly year-on-year and continued to grow month on month
In 2021, the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 1-1.05 billion yuan (the same as + 160% ~ 173%), and the net profit excluding non attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 740-790 million yuan (the same as + 204% ~ 224%). In 2021q4, the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 270-320 million yuan (the same as + 127% ~ 168%, ring – 3% ~ + 15%), and the net profit deducted from non attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 230-280 million yuan (Ring + 1% ~ 24%). Non economic mainly refers to the recovery of BIC’s payment and the income from holding Hunan Zhongke Electric Co.Ltd(300035) shares.
Changzhou’s capacity Q4 was full, and the net profit per ton increased steadily and slightly
Changzhou phase I project of the company reached production capacity of 20000 tons in Q3 in 2021, and its own design capacity reached 44000 tons. With full load operation and some outsourcing, it is expected that Q4 shipments will be about 14000 tons, an increase of more than 10% over Q3. Assuming that Zhongding high tech’s net profit attributable to the parent company is 15 million yuan, the net profit deducted per ton is about 17000 yuan / ton according to the median (considering the incentive of senior executives, it is close to 19000 yuan / ton), Slightly higher than Q3. In the second half of 2022, the 50000 ton high nickel capacity of Changzhou phase II is expected to be put into operation. After the increase of outsourcing capacity, the annual shipment is expected to reach more than 80000 tons. Nantong’s 20000 ton 3C production capacity is expected to be completed at the beginning of next year, and the first phase of 50000 ton high nickel production capacity in Europe and Finland is expected to start within this year. The production capacity and resource cooperation with SK and Zhongwei will also improve the integrated strategic layout.
The structure of customers and products will continue to be optimized, and the volume profit advantage will continue in 2022
The company’s customer structure is diverse and high-quality: it has cooperated with overseas leading lithium battery manufacturers SK, LG and Samsung SDI for many years, took the lead in developing important new players in North America and Northern Europe, developed China’s rising star satellite blue (supporting Weilai solid-state battery), and strategically locked in global high-end models. Product structure optimization: the company in 2021 “High nickel products are rapidly in large quantities. It is expected that the proportion of medium and high nickel shipments has increased to 20% +, and high-end products such as 9 series products, solid-state battery lithium battery materials and lithium ferromanganese phosphate will also achieve greater batch shipments. It is expected that the proportion of medium and high-end products will further increase in 2022. Under the pressure of high resource prices, the large volume of high-quality customers and high-end products will still support the maintenance of the company’s single ton profitability competitive power.
Profit forecast and valuation
It is estimated that the company’s shipment from 2021 to 2023 will reach 45000 / 9.0 / 125000 tons, and the performance is expected to reach RMB 1.04/14.2/1.89 billion, corresponding to 43 / 32 / 24 times of the current PE, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips
The demand for new energy vehicles is less than expected, and the technical route is uncertain.
