\u3000\u3000 Shuangliang Eco-Energy Systems Co.Ltd(600481) (600481)
Event: the company issued an announcement on the three-year sales contract with Tongwei Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) . From 2022 to 2024, the company expects to sell 1.048 billion monocrystalline silicon chips to Tongwei Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) , including 210mm and 182mm sizes. After signing the silicon wafer long order with the battery faucet Shanghai Aiko Solar Energy Co.Ltd(600732) , the company obtained the battery faucet long order again.
We won the long purchase order of battery leading silicon wafer, and the silicon wafer performance was gradually realized. Since October 2021, the company has successively announced a long list of silicon wafer sales from 2022 to 2024 with Runyang, aixu, Atlas and other battery and module leaders. The three-year long silicon wafer sales order signed with battery leader Tongwei Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) fully demonstrates the company's strength in photovoltaic silicon wafer and the company's confidence in the profitability of silicon wafer business in the future. According to the sales contract announcement announced by the company, we expect the company's silicon wafer shipment to be between 9-10gw in 2022.
Downstream customer verification is ongoing, and the customer base is expected to continue to expand. According to the feedback of the company's fixed increase documents, the company's cooperation with downstream battery and component manufacturers has been expanding and deepening. At present, the cooperation with component enterprises Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) and Chint new energy is in the pilot stage of products. With the continuous expansion of the company's customer base, the number of orders on hand is expected to increase. Combined with the rhythm of the company's silicon wafer capacity construction, the company's silicon wafer is expected to achieve full production and sales in 2022.
The expansion of silicon material production is higher than expected, and the performance of reduction furnace is expected to continue in 2022. In 2021, the reduction furnace business of the company benefited from the high growth of downstream silicon material production expansion. The reduction furnace equipment orders signed in the whole year exceeded RMB 1.7 billion, and some orders will be delivered and revenue recognized in 2022. Since 2021h2, Hoshine Silicon Industry Co.Ltd(603260) , Xinyi solar energy and other new entrants have announced the total capacity planning of 200000 tons of polysilicon each; At the same time, Daquan, Risen Energy Co.Ltd(300118) and other silicon material enterprises also released the plan to build polysilicon production expansion with more than 200000 tons in Baotou. Therefore, the silicon material link will continue to expand production from 2022 to 2023, which will directly drive the demand growth of reduction furnace. As the leader of polysilicon reduction furnace industry, the company has a market share of more than 50%. Under the continuous expansion of silicon material production, the performance of reduction furnace is expected to continue to increase.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: the silicon wafer performance in 2022 will be gradually realized and become a new growth curve. It is expected that the net profit attributable to the parent company will maintain a compound growth rate of 87.77% in the next three years. Considering the leading position of the company's energy and water saving business and the high growth of silicon wafer business in the future, the "buy" rating is maintained.
Risk warning: the downstream silicon material expansion is less than the expected risk; Risk that the company's production capacity construction progress is less than expected; The risk of rising raw material costs and declining profitability of the company; Risk of policy change.
