\u3000\u3000 Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) (600309)
Key investment points
Event: the company released the forecast of the annual report for 2021. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company in 2021 will be 24 billion yuan to 25.2 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 139% to 151%. The net profit attributable to the parent company in the fourth quarter of 2021 was RMB 4.458-5.658 billion, with a year-on-year increase of - 4.99% to + 20.59% and a month on month increase of - 25.84% to - 5.87%.
In the fourth quarter, the overhaul of BC and MDI units affected the release of output, and the MDI price decreased month on month: the 300000 ton MDI unit of BC subsidiary began to be overhauled in mid August 2021 and completed on October 20; The 400000 ton MDI unit in phase I of Ningbo base was shut down for maintenance on November 27, which is expected to take about 45 days, and the 800000 ton MDI unit in phase II was shut down for maintenance on December 11, which is expected to take about 45 days; A total of 1.5 million tons of plant maintenance has brought some pressure to the release of the company's production capacity. In November, the apparent consumption of China's aggregate MDI and pure MDI decreased month on month (qoq-4.7% / - 4.4%). In the downstream application field, the output of refrigerators and freezers increased month on month in November, but the export of refrigerators decreased month on month for two consecutive months. In the fourth quarter of 2021, the average price of pure MDI in East China was 21977 yuan / ton (yoy-20.4% / qoq-1.8%), The average price of polymerized MDI (North China pm200) is 20415 yuan / ton (YoY + 0.1% / QoQ + 0.4%). In January 2022, the listed price of the company in China's aggregated MDI market was 21500 yuan / ton, unchanged month on month; The listing price of pure MDI is 22500 yuan / ton, down 1300 yuan / ton month on month, and the price has been corrected in the off-season.
The polyether polyol of Yantai base has been expanded again, and a strategic cooperation agreement has been signed with Haier. Both upstream and downstream efforts have been made simultaneously to stabilize the industrial chain: at present, Yantai base has a total capacity of 300000 (25 + 5) tons + 195000 tons of polyether polyol, and 305000 tons (22.5 + 8 sets of devices) are under construction. The company recently issued an EIA announcement, A 850000 ton polyether polyol unit will be built in Yantai base. After completion, the polyether polyol production capacity of Yantai base will reach 1.65 million tons. In order to meet the polyether production demand, the company will build another 400000 tons of pochp propylene oxide. After completion, the Po production capacity of Yantai base will reach 940000 tons. The company signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Haier at the end of December 2021. In terms of technology with a long history of cooperation, the signing of this agreement has pushed the cooperation relationship between the company and Haier to a new height around the fields of global business layout, joint innovation, industrial interconnection, low-carbon environmental protection and so on.
The layout of Meishan and Fujian parks continued to improve: after 10000 tons of cathode materials, 50000 tons of iron phosphate (lithium) EIA of Meishan base was publicized, and the layout related to new energy continued to be overweight. The commencement ceremony of the project was held on January 14; The equipment installation of 400000 ton MDI unit in Fujian base is in progress, and the construction in the three places is progressing steadily.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions. The company develops multiple businesses simultaneously and is expected to continue high growth in the future. It is expected that the EPS will be 7.95/8.35/8.71 yuan from 2021 to 2023, and the corresponding PE will be 12 / 11 / 11x respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: the prices of MDI, petrochemical products and other main products fell on a large scale, and the downstream demand was lower than expected
