\u3000\u3000 Ningbo Yong Xin Optics Co.Ltd(603297) (603297)
Key investment points
Event: the company released the performance forecast for 2021, which is expected to achieve an operating revenue of 800 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 39%; According to the performance forecast, the company realized an operating revenue of 220 million yuan in Q4 single quarter, and the single quarter revenue reached a new high, with a year-on-year increase of 27% and a month on month increase of 4%. The performance forecast is expected to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of 260 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 62%; It is expected to realize a net profit of about 160 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 65%.
The main business boom continued, driving the rapid growth of the company's performance. According to the performance forecast, in 2021, the company's main business revenue increased by about 39% year-on-year. In terms of business: 1) optical component business: the company's bar code scanning lens business benefited from the strengthened process control of the logistics industry under the epidemic situation, and the demand is large. The on-board optical and lidar optical components business benefited from the accelerated landing of intelligent driving and grew rapidly; 2) Optical microscope business: benefiting from the rapid development of scientific research, education and industrial production, the process of high-end and localization of microscope has been steadily promoted, the market demand has continued to increase, and the business revenue of the company has increased significantly year-on-year. In addition, during the reporting period, the company confirmed the asset disposal income and other income of land collection and storage compensation for Mingzhu Road plant area of Ningbo high tech Zone. The non recurring loss contributed about 80 million yuan to the company's annual after tax net profit.
The volume of optical component business is accelerated, and the vehicle related business is expected to open long-term growth space. The company's microscope and optical element fund-raising project will be put into operation at the end of 2020, and the businesses such as bar code scanner, vehicle optics and lidar are expected to gradually release production capacity. From the perspective of on-board optical / lidar, the company's current customers mainly include Sony, optoflux, Ningbo Joyson Electronic Corp(600699) , quanergysystems, etc. Lidar is the core and key sensor of automatic driving. 2021 is the first year of lidar boarding. Nearly 20 models are carried throughout the year. Its penetration rate is expected to rise rapidly in 2022. According to yole's prediction, the revenue of autopilot lidar market will reach US $31.5 billion in 2032, with a compound annual growth rate of more than 50%. The company's lidar business is currently in the stage of small batch verification. With the gradual promotion of downstream customers of the company's lidar business, the expansion of customer groups to rail transit, industry and other fields, and the expansion from parts to lidar whole machine OEM, we believe that the business will usher in accelerated growth.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions. We raised the company's performance expectations. It is expected that the company's EPS will be 2.38 yuan, 2.68 yuan and 3.39 yuan respectively from 2021 to 2023, and the compound growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach more than 30% in the next three years. Considering the advantages of the company in the domestic substitution trend in the field of high-end microscope, the company cuts into the global supply chain of vehicle lens and is expected to continue to enjoy the high growth dividend of the industry. The company's vehicle lidar business is in the trend of continuous high growth and maintains the "buy" rating.
Risk warning: technology R & D fails to meet expectations; Downstream demand does not meet expectations; Industry competition intensifies
