\u3000\u3000 Naura Technology Group Co.Ltd(002371) (002371)
Event:
Naura Technology Group Co.Ltd(002371) release the performance forecast for 2021: it is expected to achieve an operating revenue of RMB 8.478 billion-10.901 billion in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 40% – 80%, a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 940 million-1.208 billion, a year-on-year increase of 75% – 125%, and a basic earnings per share of RMB 1.8730/share-2.4082/share.
Key investment points:
In 2021, the performance forecast exceeded expectations and led the localization of semiconductor equipment. According to the company’s performance forecast, Q4 is expected to achieve a revenue of 2.305 billion yuan to 4.728 billion yuan in a single quarter, with a year-on-year increase of 4% – 113%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 282 million yuan to 550 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 34% – 162%, exceeding market expectations. The growth of the company’s performance was mainly due to the rapid growth of the semiconductor industry in 2021 and the trend of localization of China’s semiconductor industry chain. According to SEMI data, the global semiconductor equipment sales in 2021 will reach a new high of 103 billion US dollars, up 45% over the same period last year. The market size of the Chinese mainland will remain the first. Driven by the demand for electronic products and digital transformation, the global semiconductor equipment market will expand to 114 billion US dollars in 2022. Thanks to the capital expenditure budget of TSMC, China Taiwan is expected to return to the first place in the semiconductor equipment market in 2022 and 2023. As the global foundry leader, TSMC is the wind vane of the prosperity trend of the semiconductor industry. The increase in capital expenditure indicates that the semiconductor industry is optimistic in the future. However, the localization rate of China’s semiconductor industry is still low and the domestic substitution space is broad. In addition, it is urgent to realize the independent control of equipment and materials upstream of the semiconductor industry chain, As the leader of China’s semiconductor equipment, the company is a solid cornerstone for the development of the domestic semiconductor industry and is expected to lead the continuous rise of the industry.
The second phase of large fund continues to increase, and the platform leader of semiconductor equipment continues to rise. The company was successfully issued with a fixed increase of 8.5 billion yuan, of which the second phase of the national large fund was allocated with an amount of about 1.5 billion yuan. It is the subscriber with the highest allocation amount, which also reflects the continuous strong support of the state for the localization of China’s semiconductor equipment. Specifically, it is planned to invest about 3.5 billion in the “production expansion project of semiconductor equipment industrialization base (phase IV)” in this round. It is expected to increase 2000 sets of equipment (including 500 integrated circuit equipment, 500 emerging semiconductor equipment, 300 LED equipment and 700 photovoltaic equipment), and the average annual sales revenue after reaching production is about 7.46 billion yuan; It is planned to invest about 2.4 billion yuan in the “high-end semiconductor equipment R & D project” to increase R & D efforts and carry out R & D of the next generation of high-end semiconductor equipment products and technologies; It is planned to invest about 700 million yuan for the “production expansion project of high-precision electronic components industrialization base (phase III)”. The project is expected to produce 220000 high-precision quartz crystal oscillators and 20 million special resistors per year, and the average annual sales revenue after reaching the production capacity is 442 million yuan. The fixed increase project will provide sufficient momentum for the continuous growth of the company’s performance in the future. As a leading platform enterprise of China’s semiconductor equipment, the company continues to make efforts in capacity expansion and R & D investment, highlighting its advantages in products, technology, capacity and customers, and is expected to lead the localization tide of the semiconductor equipment industry to ride the wind and waves and continue to grow.
As a leading enterprise of semiconductor equipment in China, the profit forecast and investment rating company has in-depth layout of semiconductor equipment, vacuum equipment, new energy lithium battery equipment and precision components. The product system is perfect and the comprehensive competitiveness is strong. As a firm leader in the localization of semiconductor equipment, the company is expected to fully benefit from the growth of semiconductor equipment industry and the general trend of localization, Considering the strong downstream demand, we raised our profit forecast. It is expected that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 1.062/1.598/2.021 billion, the corresponding EPS will be RMB 2.03/3.05/3.85/share respectively, and the corresponding current PE valuation will be 152 / 101 / 80 times respectively, maintaining the “overweight” rating.
The risk indicates that the downstream demand is less than the expected risk; Risk that the company’s new product R & D progress is less than expected; Risk of deterioration of competition pattern; The fixed increase project is less than the expected risk; Upstream supply chain instability risk.
