\u3000\u3000 Hithink Royalflush Information Network Co.Ltd(300033) (300033)
Hithink Royalflush Information Network Co.Ltd(300033) has a large traffic advantage in the securities service app. Hithink Royalflush Information Network Co.Ltd(300033) app ranked first in the securities service application app with 36.2 million active users in Q2 of 2021, leading the second place and nearly 20 million months. Looking back on history, we can see that 14-16 years are the key period for Hithink Royalflush Information Network Co.Ltd(300033) traffic to grow rapidly and open the gap with competitors:
1. From 2014 to 2016, users were transferred from PC terminal to mobile terminal. In 2013, Hithink Royalflush Information Network Co.Ltd(300033) developed mobile terminal applications and established cooperative relations with three major mobile operators, taking the lead in mobile phone pre installed software;
2. In the first half of 2015, Dongcai announced the restructuring, chose to take its own license to engage in securities business, and Hithink Royalflush Information Network Co.Ltd(300033) continued to be an open platform. During this period, the market share of Hithink Royalflush Information Network Co.Ltd(300033) in the open securities service platform increased significantly;
3. Compared with Hithink Royalflush Information Network Co.Ltd(300033) app, the development of self owned app of securities companies obviously lagged behind in 14-15 years: Taking Huatai zhangletong as an example, the monthly life since July 21 was 27.3% of that in the same period of Hithink Royalflush Information Network Co.Ltd(300033) , but at the beginning of 15, the proportion was only 5.24%;
Hithink Royalflush Information Network Co.Ltd(300033) flow realization method: there is still much room for personal value-added services, institutional software purchase and brokerage diversion
1. Value added telecom services: customers can obtain more data and analysis indicators by purchasing the application tools provided by the company, so as to obtain better investment assistance and experience. At present, value-added services are mainly divided into high-end products represented by “financial masters” and low-end products represented by level2 market. The former accounts for 60% – 70% of the revenue of value-added telecom services. The value-added telecom service revenue of Hithink Royalflush Information Network Co.Ltd(300033) is gradually recognized according to the service time of customers. The cash inflow value of selling goods in Q3 Hithink Royalflush Information Network Co.Ltd(300033) in 21 years is 1.02 billion yuan, 162 million yuan higher than the revenue in the current quarter, the second highest in 6 years, and the absolute value of cash inflow is also the second highest in history, indicating that the value-added service sales in 21 years are good;
2. Software sales and maintenance business: according to the calculation, the revenue of wind, the leading financial terminal, is close to 3 billion yuan in 20 years. Ifind has certain advantages in price. Moreover, we believe that most users have no special preference for using wind or Ifind. Ifind has improved its sales channels and evaluation incentives in recent years, We are optimistic that Ifind will achieve a compound revenue growth rate of more than 30% in the next three years;
3. Advertising and Internet business: at present, there are still 10% new users in China’s securities market every year, and Hithink Royalflush Information Network Co.Ltd(300033) collects front-end “capitation fee” and back-end transaction commission for brokerage diversion respectively. We calculate that the number of successful diversion customers in Hithink Royalflush Information Network Co.Ltd(300033) in 20 years is about 2.06 million, accounting for 7.5% of their monthly life; The profit distribution of the back-end charged by Hithink Royalflush Information Network Co.Ltd(300033) is sustainable ( Hithink Royalflush Information Network Co.Ltd(300033) generally has a cooperation period of 5 years or more with securities companies). We are optimistic about the ladder growth of its income;
Investment suggestion: we expect that the net profit attributable to the parent company will increase by 26.3%, 23% and 25.3% year-on-year to RMB 2.18 billion, RMB 2.68 billion and RMB 3.36 billion respectively from 2021 to 2023; The current share price of Hithink Royalflush Information Network Co.Ltd(300033) corresponds to 25.7 times of PE in 22 years, which is lower than the average valuation of 39.2 times since 2016, maintaining the “buy” rating;
Risk warning: the capital market fluctuates sharply and the transaction amount decreases sharply; The price of the company’s value-added telecom service products fell sharply; Customer unsubscribe increased significantly; Significant changes in third-party account opening supervision policies; It is assumed that there is a risk of deviation between the calculation results and the actual situation;
