Investment view: the demand in 2022 is expected to exceed the expectation, and attention is paid to the pattern of subdivided links
The photovoltaic sector rebounded slightly this week. Benefiting from the rebound in the demand for goods in the downstream Spring Festival, the prices of silicon materials and silicon chips in the upstream of the industrial chain rebounded slightly, and the prices of battery chips and components remained stable. We believe that the price rebound of the industrial chain is a temporary phenomenon. In the short term, it is expected that the price of the industrial chain will remain stable before the Spring Festival, while in the whole year, we believe that the price of the industrial chain will decline with the release of supply.
Looking forward to the whole year, with the downward price of the industrial chain, the photovoltaic demand in 2022 is easy to exceed expectations. Driven by the carbon neutralization trend and the economy of the industrial chain, it has high growth potential in the medium and long term, and is rated as “overweight” in the power equipment industry. However, it is worth noting that the substantial expansion of production in the industry may cause a normalized surplus in most links, and the pattern is affected to a certain extent. We suggest giving priority to the pattern of subdivided links and the implementation of new technologies. 1. Glass and diamond wire have significant cost advantages, focusing on Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) (A / h), Xinyi light energy, Yangling Metron New Material Co.Ltd(300861) , Henan Hengxing Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002132) . 2. Inverter soft magnetic particle core and high-purity quartz sand have significant product differences. Pay attention to Poco Holding Co.Ltd(300811) , Jiangsu Pacific Quartz Co.Ltd(603688) . 3. There are profitable repair opportunities for battery modules, adhesive films and tracking brackets. Pay attention to Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) , Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) , Hangzhou First Applied Material Co.Ltd(603806) , Shanghai Hiuv New Materials Co.Ltd(688680) , Arctech Solar Holding Co.Ltd(688408) , Shanghai Aiko Solar Energy Co.Ltd(600732) . 4. Pay attention to the technological change opportunities brought by new technologies such as n-type battery and granular silicon, poly GCL energy, etc.
Industry trends: Jingke 8GW high efficiency n-type TOPCON battery is fully put into operation and Hainan Drinda Automotive Trim Co.Ltd(002865) plans to divest inefficient business assets
Industry policy: 1) Jiangxi Provincial Development and Reform Commission issued a document planning that by the end of 2024, the coverage of roof photovoltaic power generation with development conditions in all development zones in the province will reach more than 80%; 2) Ningxia development and Reform Commission issued a document planning that in 2022, the grid connection scale of affordable photovoltaic in Ningxia will be 4gw, which needs 10% and 2-hour energy storage; 3) Zhejiang Pinghu and Ningbo issued photovoltaic subsidy policies, with kwh subsidies of 0.2 yuan and 0.45 yuan respectively.
Company dynamics: 1) shangmai new energy 1GW light components were officially put into operation; 2) Jingke 8GW high-efficiency n-type TOPCON battery is fully put into operation and has fully entered a new journey of n-type commercial production; 3) Hainan Drinda Automotive Trim Co.Ltd(002865) it is proposed to divest inefficient business assets and bet on photovoltaic cells; 4) Phase II of Yingli 5.2gw Lixian photovoltaic module base project was started; 5) Shuangliang Eco-Energy Systems Co.Ltd(600481) 3.5 billion yuan will be added to accelerate the building of silicon wafer “growth pole”; 6) Tianjin Zhonghuan Semiconductor Co.Ltd(002129) announced that it plans to repurchase the company’s shares of no less than 355 million yuan and no more than 391 million yuan as an employee stock ownership plan or equity incentive.
Industrial chain tracking: the price of silicon material stabilized and rebounded, and the price of silicon wafer increased slightly
Silicon material: the price range of China’s single crystal re feeding this week was 2300-242000 yuan / ton, and the average transaction price rebounded to 234600 yuan / ton, with a week-on-week increase of 1.21%; The price range of single crystal compact was 228000-240000 yuan / ton, and the average transaction price rose to 232500 yuan / ton, with a week-on-week increase of 1.48%. Prices stabilized and picked up. In view of the positive downstream demand in the short term, the supply of silicon material is less than expected, superimposed with factors such as hoarding during the Spring Festival, it is expected that the price of silicon material will continue to rise steadily and slightly before the Spring Festival. Silicon wafers: according to pvinfolink, the average transaction prices of 166mm and 210mm monocrystalline silicon wafers in China this week were 4.95 yuan / piece and 7.7 yuan / piece respectively, the same as last week; The average transaction price of 182mm monocrystalline silicon wafer was 5.85 yuan / wafer, up 0.9% month on month. Prices rose slightly. At present, the supply of silicon wafers has not expanded significantly, while the demand for battery terminals is boosted. It is expected that the price of silicon wafers will continue to rise slightly in the short term. Batteries: the average transaction prices of 166mm, 182mm and 210mm batteries in China this week were 1.05 yuan / W, 1.08 yuan / W and 1.035 yuan / W respectively, the same as last week. Prices remained stable. The purchasing power of the component end is weak at the water level of 1.08 yuan / W, and the power of price rise of the battery end before the Spring Festival is limited. Components: the average transaction prices of 166mm, 182mm and 210mm components in China this week were 1.85 yuan / W, 1.88 yuan / W and 1.88 yuan / W respectively, the same as last week. Prices remained stable. Affected by the price rise in the upstream supply chain, the price is expected to be relatively stable from January to February.
Market performance last week: the power equipment sector increased by 2.13%, ranking second
Last week’s market review: the power equipment sector increased by 2.13% (last week’s increase of – 8.31%), ranking the second (a total of 28 primary sub industries), 3.75 percentage points compared with the Shanghai Composite Index and 4.11 percentage points compared with the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index.
Among the constituent stocks of the industry (Shenwan power equipment) last week, the top five weekly gainers were Jiangsu Luokai Mechanical & Electrical Co.Ltd (603829) (+ 28.61%), Chang Lan Electric Technology Co.Ltd(002879) (+ 23.29%), Sinostar Cable Co.Ltd(300933) (+ 22.38%), Jinguan Electric Co.Ltd(688517) (+ 18.95%) and Shenzhen Kedali Industry Co.Ltd(002850) (+ 15.68%). The last five weekly gainers were Shouhang High-Tech Energy Co.Ltd(002665) (- 11.29%), Dongfang Electric Corporation Limited(600875) (- 11.59%) and Arctech Solar Holding Co.Ltd(688408) (- 12.57%) Luoyang Xinqianglian Slewing Bearings Co.Ltd(300850) (- 14.16%) and Ningbo Sanxing Medical Electric Co.Ltd(601567) (- 25.55%).
Risk tips
Risk of sharp price reduction of products, sharp rise in raw material prices, lower than expected downstream demand, increased industry competition, systemic risk of the market, failure of recommended companies to meet expectations, etc.
