In January, the report lowered the output and ending inventory of corn, soybean and rice in 2021 / 2022
On January 13, 2022, USDA released the global Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) supply and demand forecast report in January. Compared with the forecast report in December, the main adjustments include: reducing the global output and ending inventory of corn, soybean and rice; Among them, the reduction of soybean inventory at the end of the period is the largest, and the reduction of soybean output ranks first among all crops. The main reasons driving the above adjustments include: (1) the global corn output is expected to decrease and the ending inventory is expected to fall; (2) The global soybean production and ending inventory have been revised down significantly, and the inventory consumption is lower than expected; (3) Global wheat production is expected to rise, pushing up the ending inventory level; (4) The rice supply was slightly revised down, and the inventory at the beginning and end of the period was lower than the predicted value in December.
Corn and wheat: corn output and ending inventory decreased month on month, while wheat output and ending inventory increased month on month. Corn: in 2021 / 2022, the global corn output was 1.207 billion tons (year-on-year + 7.49%), the import volume was 187 million tons (year-on-year + 0.27%), the export volume was 204 million tons (year-on-year + 13.85%), the consumption was 1.196 billion tons (year-on-year + 5.21%), and the feed consumption was 751 million tons (year-on-year + 3.9%), The ending inventory was 303 million tons (year-on-year + 3.71%). The inventory consumption ratio was 25.34% (YoY -0.37pct). Global corn supply and demand is tight, and corn prices are expected to rise.
Wheat: the predicted value of global wheat output in 2021 / 2022 is 779 million tons (year-on-year + 0.35%), the consumption is 787 million tons (year-on-year + 0.57%), the feed consumption is 160 million tons (year-on-year + 1.17%), and the ending inventory is 280 million tons (year-on-year - 3.07%). The inventory consumption ratio was 35.55% (YoY + 0.31pct). Wheat supply has increased and consumer demand is strong.
Soybean: South America, Brazil and Argentina have great pressure on soybean production reduction
According to the January report, the global soybean inventory at the beginning of 2021 / 2022 is expected to be 99.88 million tons (year-on-year + 4.48%), the output is 373 million tons (year-on-year + 1.73%), the consumption is 375 million tons (year-on-year + 3.33%), and the ending inventory is 95.2 million tons (year-on-year - 4.69%). The inventory consumption ratio was 25.39% (YoY -1.66pct). It is estimated that 6.99 million tons of U.S. soybeans at the beginning of 2021 / 2022 (year-on-year - 51.05%). In January, it was reported that the global soybean production and ending inventory in 2021 / 2022 were reduced, among which the soybean production and inventory in Argentina were revised down the most. In the follow-up, we need to continue to pay attention to the impact of soil moisture data in the southern hemisphere in 2020 / 2021 on the annual yield per mu and yield.
Rice: the demand decreased slightly, and the inventory decreased at the beginning and end of the period
According to the January report, the global rice inventory at the beginning of 2021 / 2022 is 186 million tons (year-on-year + 2.64%), the output is 510 million tons (year-on-year + 0.52%), the consumption is 510 million tons (year-on-year + 1.56%), and the ending inventory is 186 million tons (year-on-year - 0.23%). The inventory consumption ratio was 36.46% (YoY -0.65pct). It is estimated that China's inventory consumption ratio will be 72.96% (year-on-year -4.41pct) in 2021 / 2022. China's rice supply level will be relatively stable and the pattern of booming supply and demand will remain unchanged.
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