The growth space of prefabricated vegetables is broad, and the market performance of dairy products is stable
From January 10 to January 14, the food and beverage index decreased by 4.4%, ranking 24th in the primary sub industry, about 2.4pct lower than Shanghai and Shenzhen 300. The performance of other foods (0.0%) in the sub industry is relatively leading. Affected by the epidemic situation in some areas, the market is worried about the consumption scene of the Spring Festival, and the overall performance of wine and condiments is poor. The theme of prefabricated dishes rises and is sought after by the market. The prefabricated food industry is in the stage of rapid development: (1) end B: Prefabricated food can effectively reduce the cost of rent, raw materials and labor of catering enterprises, ensure the consistency of chain catering products, and have high operation efficiency; (2) C-end: Prefabricated dishes have high cost performance and good taste, which can effectively reduce the cooking burden of consumers and improve the quality of life. At present, the industry has obvious regional characteristics, the competition pattern is scattered, and it is still in the stage of horse racing and enclosure. In the future, with the gradual release of b-end and C-end demand, the industry has broad development space and a trillion market can be expected. Old prefabricated vegetable enterprises Suzhou Weizhixiang Food Co.Ltd(605089) and haodeli have been deeply engaged in the prefabricated vegetable industry for many years, and Shandong Delisi Food Co.Ltd(002330) , Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Co.Ltd(603345) and other enterprises in the food industry have arranged the prefabricated vegetable industry one after another. Relevant enterprises can be the first to layout the market and enjoy the dividends of the rapid development of the industry. It is recommended to pay attention to the relevant beneficiary targets of the prefabricated vegetable industry, such as Suzhou Weizhixiang Food Co.Ltd(605089) , Shandong Delisi Food Co.Ltd(002330) , Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Co.Ltd(603345) , etc.
We recommend focusing on dairy allocation opportunities. At present, the dynamic sales of normal temperature liquid milk products are good. Under the early preparation of Spring Festival, high-end milk and milk drinks perform well. Some areas are out of stock. Although there is an epidemic in some areas, it has a limited impact on dairy products. At present, the terminal demand for dairy products is still good. At present, the overall competition in the industry is relatively relaxed: high-end milk has small regional and Festival Promotion; The promotion of basic white milk is also reduced compared with 2020q4. In terms of future cost outlook, it is expected that 2022q1 will be close to the Winter Olympics, supporting offline materials will be put in, and the rate may increase slightly. In 2022, the industry will still be in a state of rational competition, and the rate may remain stable. It is recommended to focus on Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) configuration opportunities.
Recommended combination: Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) and Foshan Haitian Flavouring And Food Company Ltd(603288)
(1) Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) cancel the unpacking policy of Feitian Maotai liquor, and the price difference between the original box and bulk bottle is expected to narrow, which is conducive to the development of marketization. The price increase of Maotai liquor is expected to rise. Considering the supply of base liquor, the planned revenue target is expected to accelerate in 2022. The company has room to move calmly in terms of volume and price, and the logic of simultaneous rise of volume and price in the future is smooth. (2) Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) recently, the wholesale price has rebounded, the channel inventory is low, and the shipment is stable compared with the previous period. Considering the changes of quotas inside and outside the plan, it is expected to achieve double-digit growth in 2022. (3) Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) the rapid growth shows that the company’s fundamentals are strong, and the company’s change of command will usher in a new direction of development. The company has profound brand heritage, mature mechanism and team, and it is a long-term trend to realize the return of the brand to the high-end. (4) Foshan Haitian Flavouring And Food Company Ltd(603288) the price increase has a positive impact on costs and channel profits. The condiment industry is slowly repaired, and the company also shows a recovery trend. Considering the price increase, it is expected to return to the normal growth level in 2022. Proposed layout and long-term holding.
Risk tips: economic downturn, food safety, fluctuations in raw material prices, lower than expected recovery in consumer demand, etc.
