The price of thermal coal and double coke continued to rebound, Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry Co.Ltd(601001) performance exceeded expectations
This week, the price of thermal coal continued to rise, and the port coal price broke through 900 yuan. Fundamentals of this week: in terms of demand, the daily consumption level of the power plant is high, the coal consumption demand is strong, and the coal storage has declined. At the same time, superimposed on the phased centralized replenishment on the eve of the Spring Festival, the overall demand for power coal is relatively strong; In terms of supply, the end of origin guarantees supply, maintains high load production and remains stable as a whole. In addition, under the influence of export restrictions in Indonesia, the import of thermal coal was limited this week. Overall, the current fundamental resonance between supply and demand drives coal prices out of the rebound market. Judging from the later stage, we believe that the current rebound trend is only temporary, and the coal price may be gradually under pressure in the short term: in terms of demand, with the decline of construction in the downstream near the Spring Festival and the warmer weather, the coal consumption demand will turn weak seasonally. At the same time, the maintenance of high inventory of the power plant also weakens the demand for short-term replenishment; On the supply side, Indonesia announced this week that it would relax the ban on coal export and release coal ships to leave the port one after another. The import supply ushered in the recovery. At the same time, large coal mines planned to maintain production during the Spring Festival, and the supply performance may be stable. However, we believe that the coal price should not be overly pessimistic. Looking forward to the festival, the policy focus may again focus on ensuring safety. The current ultra-high load production intensity is unsustainable, and the production intensity may match the demand, so the coal price is expected to run at a high level. In terms of coking coal, this week, the steel plant accelerated the resumption of production, greatly boosted the demand for replenishment, and the coking coal fundamentals changed from weak to strong, driving the coking coal price stronger. This week, some coal enterprises have released performance forecasts, and the annual performance growth is gratifying. Among them, the performance of Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry Co.Ltd(601001) has increased by 456% year-on-year, which is much higher than expected, and the high profit trend of coal enterprises has gradually appeared. In the medium and long term, with the improvement of the fundamental pattern, the coal industry has entered a high-profit era, ushering in a period of transformation strategic opportunities in the next 5-10 years. Sufficient cash flow is enough to support the transformation of coal enterprises in the layout of new energy, new materials and other new tracks, and comply with the direction of double carbon policy. Among them, the transformation of green power operators has low short-term investment, fast profit cashing and relatively stable cash flow, which is the transformation choice of most coal enterprises. Among them, we recommend the power investment energy that has formed the installed capacity of new energy and Yankuang energy, which defines the long-term green power transformation plan, and are optimistic about the transformation and growth potential of traditional energy enterprises. Targets with stable performance and high dividends: Yankuang energy, China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) , Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) , Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) ; Objects with expected growth benefits: Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) , Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry Co.Ltd(601001) , Guizhou Panjiang Refined Coal Co.Ltd(600395) , Huaibei Mining Holdings Co.Ltd(600985) ; Shenzhen New Industries Biomedical Engineering Co.Ltd(300832) transformation target beneficiaries: Shan Xi Hua Yang Group New Energy Co.Ltd(600348) , Shanxi Coal International Energy Group Co.Ltd(600546) , power investment energy, Jinneng Science&Technology Co.Ltd(603113) , China Xuyang group (H shares); Object of benefit from debt restructuring: Wintime Energy Co.Ltd(600157) .
Coal power industry chain: power coal prices continued to rise this week, and Indonesia relaxed the ban on coal export
This week (January 10-january 14, 2022), the price of thermal coal continued to rise, and the spot price of q5500 thermal coal in QinGang increased to 945 yuan / ton. On the fundamentals of this week, in terms of demand, the low temperature weather continued to support the high daily consumption level of the power plant. The coal consumption demand was strong, which also led to the decline of coal storage in the power plant. At the same time, the phased centralized replenishment on the eve of the Spring Festival was superimposed, and the overall demand for power coal was relatively strong; In terms of supply, the end of origin guaranteed supply, maintained high load production and remained stable as a whole. Some coal mines reduced production due to the approaching Spring Festival, but the impact was small. In addition, under the influence of Indonesia’s export restrictions, the import of thermal coal is limited this week, but Indonesia announced to relax the export ban this week, and the import supply will resume in the later stage. Overall, the current fundamental resonance between supply and demand drives coal prices out of the rebound market.
Coal coke steel industry chain: Double coke continued its rise this week, and the pace of steel enterprises’ resumption of production accelerated to boost demand
Coke: the coke price was raised by 200 yuan again this week. In terms of demand, the pace of resumption of production of steel mills has accelerated, the operating rate of Tangshan blast furnace has increased significantly, and the centralized replenishment of steel mills has driven the demand for coke to strengthen; In terms of supply, the high increase in demand led to the increase in the operating rate of coke enterprises. However, due to the impact of environmental protection and production restriction, the pace of resumption of production of coke enterprises was weaker than that of steel mills, and the coke fundamentals changed from weak to strong, supporting the rise of coke prices. Coking coal: coking coal prices rose this week, mainly due to the accelerated resumption of blast furnace production in the steel plant, which boosted the demand for replenishment in the downstream of coking steel. The downstream coking coal inventory increased linearly within two weeks after the year. At the same time, the production release was limited due to the continuous force of origin security inspection. Coking coal fundamentals ushered in a phased inflection point and gradually turned to tight balance, driving the rise of coking coal prices.
Risk tips: downside risk of economic growth, mismatch risk of supply and demand, accelerated substitution risk of renewable energy
