Key investment points
Electrical equipment 11739 rose 2.13%, outperforming the market. This week (from January 10 to January 14, the same below), lithium batteries rose 0.98%, new energy vehicles rose 0.88%, industrial control automation rose 0%, photovoltaic fell 0.41%, power generation and power grid fell 1.28%, nuclear power fell 1.8%, power generation equipment fell 3.25% and wind power fell 3.84%. The top five increases were Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) , Jiangsu Cnano Technology Co.Ltd(688116) , Aoyang Shunchang, Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) , Guangdong Lyric Robot Automation Co.Ltd(688499) ; The top five declines were Jiangyin Hengrun Heavy Industries Co.Ltd(603985) , Shenzhen Sunrise New Energy Co.Ltd(002256) , Miracle Automation Engineering Co.Ltd(002009) , Bikang shares, Cecep Wind-Power Corporation(601016) .
Industry level: electric vehicles: China Automobile Association: in December, China sold 531000 electric vehicles, with a month on month ratio of + 114% / 11%, and 3521000 in the whole year, with a year-on-year ratio of + 158%; Passenger Federation: in December, the wholesale of electric passenger vehicles was 505000, with a month on month ratio of + 139% / + 18%. The annual total was 3.312 million, a year-on-year increase of 181.0%; In 2021, the installed capacity of power battery is 154.5gwh, with a year-on-year increase of + 143%, iron lithium accounting for 53%, battery output is 208gwh, with a year-on-year increase of + 163%, and iron lithium accounting for 57%; Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) invest in Dongheng new energy, a battery material supplier; Charging Alliance: 936000 charging facilities will be built in China in 2021, with a pile vehicle ratio of 1:3.7; LG Chemical will build the fourth vehicle battery material factory with an annual capacity of 60000 tons; Fire of SK energy storage device in Korea; Metal cobalt is quoted at 500000 yuan / ton, this week + 0.6%, nickel at 166300 yuan / ton, this week + 7.8%, manganese at 43000 yuan / ton, which is flat this week, metal lithium at 1.63 million yuan / ton, this week + 8.7%, battery grade lithium carbonate at 335400 yuan / ton, this week + 11.6%, lithium hydroxide at 269400 yuan / ton, this week + 10.2%, lithium hexafluorophosphate at 560000 yuan / ton, this week + 1.8%, The price of cobalt oxide precursor is 392500 yuan / ton, this week + 1.3%, the price of lithium cobaltate cathode is 492500 yuan / ton, this week + 11.9%, the price of ternary 622 cathode is 281000 yuan / ton, this week + 3.9%, the price of ternary 811 cathode is 292500 yuan / ton, this week + 1.7%, the price of lithium iron phosphate cathode is 122500 yuan / ton, this week + 10.9%, the price of square lithium iron battery is 785 yuan / kWh, this week + 11.3%. New energy: U.S. developers will add nearly 10GW utility scale photovoltaic projects in the first ten months of 2021; Zhangye, Gansu Province, released the first batch of scenery supplementary Competitive Allocation indicators in the 14th five year plan, which will be connected to the grid before June 30, with no less than 10% energy storage; Including 5 photovoltaic and photothermal standards, the National Energy Administration issued an announcement on the approval of energy industry standards; Lixian County, Hebei Province: the first phase of the smart photovoltaic industrial park project with an investment of 1 billion yuan was put into operation and the second phase was started; This week’s monocrystalline silicon material was 235 yuan / kg, a month on month increase of + 2.17%; The quotation of single crystal silicon wafer 166 / 182 / 210mm is 5.1/6.1/8 yuan / piece, with a ring ratio of + 3.03% / + 4.27% / flat; The quotation of single crystal perc166 battery is 1.06 yuan / W, with a ring ratio of + 0.95%; The quotation of single crystal perc components was 1.83 yuan / W, unchanged month on month; Glass 3.2mm/2.0mm, quotation 26 / 20 yuan / flat. Industrial Control & Power Grid: according to the interface news, the State Grid plans to complete a power grid investment of 501.2 billion in 2021, a year-on-year increase of + 8.8%; According to China Energy News, the State Grid plans to invest 380 billion yuan in the 14th five year plan to build 38 lines of “14 direct 24 AC”, with a length of 30000 + km and a capacity of 340 million KVA of substation equipment.
Company level: Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) : 1) the company expects the net profit attributable to the parent company to be RMB 2.66-2.76 billion in 2021, an increase of 138.44% – 147.40% at the same time; 2) Sign cooperation with overseas automobile enterprises to supply no more than 1.65 billion square meters in 2022-2024 and no more than 900 million square meters in 25 years; Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) : the company expects the net profit attributable to the parent company to be 1.7-1.8 billion yuan in 2021, an increase of 154.63% – 169.61% at the same time; Shenzhen Kedali Industry Co.Ltd(002850) : the company expects the net profit attributable to the parent company to be RMB 520-570 million in 2021, an increase of 191.09% – 219.08% at the same time; Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) : the company expects the net profit attributable to the parent company to be 3.7-4.2 billion yuan in 2021, an increase of 217.6% – 260.6% at the same time; Ginlong Technologies Co.Ltd(300763) : the company expects the net profit attributable to the parent company to be RMB 455-535 million in 2021, an increase of 43.03% – 68.18% at the same time; Jiangsu Cnano Technology Co.Ltd(688116) : the company expects the net profit attributable to the parent company to be RMB 285-305 million in 2021, an increase of 166% – 184% at the same time; Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) : the company expects the net profit attributable to the parent company to be RMB 760-830 million in 2021, an increase of RMB 790-860 million at the same time; Shenzhen Kedali Industry Co.Ltd(002850) : the company expects the net profit attributable to the parent company to be RMB 520-570 million in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 191.1% – 219.1%; Sunwoda Electronic Co.Ltd(300207) : the company expects the net profit attributable to the parent company to be RMB 802-962 million in 2021, an increase of 0% – 20% at the same time; Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) : the scale of publicly issuing convertible corporate bonds is 7 billion yuan; Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) : 1) Sunresin New Materials Co.Ltd Xi’An(300487) supply qualified lithium salt to the company and its designated party for a long time; 2) The company and its subsidiary Huizhou Yiwei power plan to invest in the construction of power battery R & D center building, including power battery R & D center and common technology R & D and innovation service platform for electrochemical energy storage and power battery industry, with a total investment of 699 million yuan and a construction period of one year; Gem Co.Ltd(002340) : Gem Co.Ltd(002340) (Hubei) (invested 116 million yuan, accounting for 35%) signed an investment cooperation agreement for 150000 T / a iron phosphate project with Yangfeng Chuyuan; Jingke energy: initial public offering of shares and listing on the science and innovation board. The number of shares issued is 2 billion. The company is expected to raise 10 billion yuan.
Investment strategy: the current valuation of the electric vehicle sector is adjusted back to 25-40x in 2022, which is at the lower limit of historical valuation. The recently disclosed Q4 performance of the leading company exceeds the market expectation. After the comprehensive revision expectation in 2021, it will generally increase by 70-100% in 2022. At the same time, the high view continues, and the global sales volume will reach 6.15 million in 2021, exceeding the market expectation; In 2022, we are optimistic that the world is expected to reach 10 million vehicles, an increase of 60%. Q1 industry’s production scheduling is not light in the off-season, the month on month is flat, the supply of lithium battery is still in short supply, and the leading volume and profit are rising. We expect to be strongly optimistic about the oversold rebound of electric vehicle sector. The importance and commitment of China, Europe and the United States to carbon emissions will accelerate the process of photovoltaic from auxiliary energy to main energy. However, the excessive rise of silicon material has increased the cost pressure, the quotation of components exceeds 2 yuan / W, and the production scheduling and market demand of components are challenged in the short term. In the short term, the price of silicon wafers has loosened, indicating that the negative feedback from the downstream has been transmitted upward to silicon wafers. We expect silicon wafers to take the lead in reducing prices to promote the upward production scheduling. China has gradually built up n supporting policies centered on 3060, further built a “1 + n” policy system, and promoted the development of centralized and distributed markets by large scenic base + the whole county. From 2022 to 2023, it will form a scale of about 180gw. The opinions on carbon peak and carbon neutralization have been officially released. The “1 + n” policy system has been gradually improved, and the photovoltaic policy of the United States continues to improve, We expect that the installed capacity will be 150-155gw in 2021, with an increase of 20% at the same time, and it is expected to exceed 45% + growth in 2022. At the same time, the tou policy will further promote the development of distribution and energy storage, and we are optimistic about the growth of high-quality photovoltaic leaders.
The new power system brings structural opportunities. During the 14th Five Year Plan period, we expect the total investment in power grid to increase steadily. However, in order to solve the problems of large-scale access to new energy, changes in load structure and large penetration of power electronic equipment, the investment in power grid will focus on the direction of grid construction, intelligent distribution network, digitization and pumped storage, which will bring new opportunities. The growth space is opened under the background of wind power carbon neutralization. The domestic substitution of industrial control continues, and the leader is always strong.
Key recommended targets: Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) (global leader of power battery, global high-quality customers, leading technology and cost advantage), Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) (power lithium battery gradually becomes the leader and electronic cigarette provides support), Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) (high nickel positive lead, high capacity release and high increase period), Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) (global leader of wet diaphragm, strong profitability) Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) (global leader in negative electrode and diaphragm coating), Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) (expected market demand and profit inflection point of iron and lithium supermarket), Shenzhen Inovance Technology Co.Ltd(300124) (general automation continues to exceed market expectations and comprehensive breakthrough of powertrain), Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) (global leader in inverter and forward-looking layout of energy storage), Shenzhen Kedali Industry Co.Ltd(002850) (global leader in structural parts, high-quality customers, high volume and high growth period) Jiangsu Cnano Technology Co.Ltd(688116) (the leader of carbon nanotube conductive agent, entering the upper volume stage), Byd Company Limited(002594) (the sales volume of electric vehicles continues to exceed market expectations and the external supply of blade batteries accelerates), Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002709) (Electrolyte & hexafluoride leader and new lithium salt leader), Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) (cobalt salt leader and positive prepolymer leader), Ginlong Technologies Co.Ltd(300763) (series inverter leader, high performance growth) Cngr Advanced Material Co.Ltd(300919) (global leader of ternary prepolymer and rapid expansion of production by customers with high quality), Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) (global leader of monocrystalline silicon chips and components with strong comprehensive strength), Hangzhou First Applied Material Co.Ltd(603806) (leader of EVA and Poe and loading of photosensitive dry film), Jiangsu Goodwe Power Supply Technology Co.Ltd(688390) (high growth of distributed inverter and power of energy storage business), Hemai Co., Ltd. (shipment has doubled continuously and is expected to be your leader) Hongfa Technology Co.Ltd(600885) (global leader of new and old relays, expected supermarket market in 2021), Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) (leader of integrated components, expected profit elasticity in 2022), Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) (leader of silicon and perc batteries, profit exceeding market expectation), Shenzhen Capchem Technology.Ltd(300037) (leader of electrolyte and fluorine chemical exceeding Market expectation), Nari Technology Co.Ltd(600406) (leader of secondary equipment, benefit of power Internet of things), Sieyuan Electric Co.Ltd(002028) , Jiangsu Goodwe Power Supply Technology Co.Ltd(688390) , Shenzhen Senior Technology Material Co.Ltd(300568) Nuode Investment Co.Ltd(600110) , Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co.Ltd(002050) , Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) , Sunwoda Electronic Co.Ltd(300207) , Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) , Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) , Arctech Solar Holding Co.Ltd(688408) , No. 9 company, China Leadshine Technology Co.Ltd(002979) , Shanghai Aiko Solar Energy Co.Ltd(600732) , Sieyuan Electric Co.Ltd(002028) , Xinjiang Goldwind Science And Technology Co.Ltd(002202) . It is suggested to pay attention to: Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , Hunan Zhongke Electric Co.Ltd(300035) , beiteri, Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) , Sunwoda Electronic Co.Ltd(300207) , etc.
Risk tip: the investment growth rate is declining, the policy is lower than the market expectation, and the price competition is higher than the market expectation
