Key investment points
The performance of the computer sector continued to improve and the valuation reached a reasonable level
The computer sector has a relative return throughout the year, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index. In 2021, the yield of the computer sector was 4.60%, and that of the CSI 300 was - 9.12% in the same period, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 13.72pct. The computer sector had a relative income throughout the year, ranking 21st among the 28 primary industries of CITIC, with a relatively weak performance. On the whole, although the disturbance of the epidemic to the computer industry has weakened, it still exists. The anti epidemic has tightened the government's unnecessary expenditure and reduced the relevant information bidding. The epidemic has delayed the offline implementation of the project, which has a great impact on some companies taking the project implementation as the business model. At present, the overall PE valuation of the computer sector is at the historical average level, and the P / s valuation is still below the historical average level. In terms of performance, the performance of the computer sector continued to improve in the first three quarters of 2021. In terms of positions, 2021q3 public funds have significantly reduced their positions, which has reached a relatively low allocation level.
Intelligent driving: penetration continues to improve
With the development of "electrification, intelligence, networking and sharing" in the automotive industry, the penetration rate of intelligent driving in China continues to increase, from 3% in 2016 to 15% in 2020 (L1 / L2 level), The intelligent connected vehicle technology roadmap 2.0 released in 2020 puts forward specific goals for the development of intelligent connected vehicles in China: the penetration rate of L2 / L3 intelligent driving will reach 50% / 70% respectively in 2025 / 2030. Driven by the policy, China's intelligent driving penetration rate will enter a rapid improvement stage, At the same time, the data of the three factor algorithm of artificial intelligence development continues to improve, providing technical support for intelligent driving. Focus on investment opportunities in subdivided industrial chains: 1) interactive end: intelligent cockpit; 2) Vehicle end: on-board camera, lidar, millimeter wave radar and ultrasonic radar; 3) Cloud: the trend of high-level automatic driving is that the value of vehicles is inclined to the direction of software, and vehicle chip and software developers are expected to benefit fully.
Xinchuang: the policy continues to increase and the incremental market is started
With the launch of e-government and industry information innovation, the scale of information innovation is expected to be enlarged step by step. First of all, the party and government information innovation is expected to officially expand from the past administrative office to the construction of e-government information innovation. On January 6, 2022, the national development and Reform Commission publicly issued the plan for promoting national government informatization in the 14th five year plan, It is proposed that "by 2025, the security of the national e-government network will reach a new level, fully implement the hierarchical protection system of information security and information system, basically realize the safe and reliable application of government informatization, and ensure the safety and reliability of the whole process of government informatization construction and application."
2021 is the first year for the large-scale implementation of Xinchuang. The main target market is administrative office. At present, most provinces in China have completed bidding. From the perspective of provincial procurement, the procurement of PC and server by the Party committee / provincial / municipal governments has been completed. It is expected that the e-government information innovation market will be gradually launched from 2022. The 14th five year plan clearly points out that the principle is independent, controllable, safe and reliable. It can be confirmed that during the 14th Five Year Plan period (2021-2025), all administrative offices and e-government should be replaced by localization. Therefore, the incremental credit innovation market is expected to be gradually implemented within three years.
Industrial software: intelligent manufacturing + domestic substitution + policy support
The added value of China's manufacturing industry has maintained the first in the world for many years, but it is in the third echelon in the four echelon pattern of the global manufacturing industry. It has been at the middle and bottom of the value chain for a long time. It presents the characteristics of "large but not strong" and "complete but not excellent". In the transformation from a large manufacturing country to a powerful manufacturing country, the demand for industrial software is increasing day by day. The EDA / metalab outage highlighted the importance of developing independent and controllable industrial software, forced the accelerated development of domestic industrial software, and domestic substitution has become a long-term trend. In recent years, the state has issued support policies for industrial software. Under the combined action of demand, policy and external environment, domestic industrial software will enter the golden development period.
Industry rating and investment strategy
In 2022, we will focus on intelligence and localization. Looking forward to 2022, the impact of the epidemic will be gradually eliminated, the margin of fiscal and monetary policy will be loose, and the promotion of new infrastructure is expected to be further accelerated. We believe that the fundamentals of Companies in the computer sector are stable and good, and the sector valuation and public offering positions are at a low level, which is at an appropriate layout time point. From the perspective of technological progress and industrial landing, the establishment of the trend of intellectualization and localization will become the deterministic direction of future scientific and technological evolution, and the computer industry will be rated as "overweight".
It is suggested to pay attention to the following subdivision directions: 1) intelligent driving: Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) , Thunder Software Technology Co.Ltd(300496) , Neusoft Corporation(600718) , Guangting information, Navinfo Co.Ltd(002405) , Autel Intelligent Technology Corp.Ltd(688208) ; 2) Artificial intelligence: Iflytek Co.Ltd(002230) , Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co.Ltd(002415) , Streamax Technology Co.Ltd(002970) , Beijing Roborock Technology Co.Ltd(688169) , No. 9 company; 3) Xinchuang: China Greatwall Technology Group Co.Ltd(000066) , China National Software And Service Company Limited(600536) , Archermind Technology (Nanjing) Co.Ltd(300598) , Dawning Information Industry Co.Ltd(603019) , Changsha Jingjia Microelectronics Co.Ltd(300474) , Beijing Tongtech Co.Ltd(300379) , Beijing Kingsoft Office Software Inc(688111) ; 4) Network security: Qi An Xin Technology Group Inc(688561) , Sangfor Technologies Inc(300454) , Dbappsecurity Co.Ltd(688023) , Koal Software Co.Ltd(603232) , Nsfocus Technologies Group Co.Ltd(300369) , Venustech Group Inc(002439) ; 5) Industrial software: Zwsoft Co.Ltd(Guangzhou)(688083) , Kelun electronics, Digiwin Software Co.Ltd(300378) , Shanghai Baosight Software Co.Ltd(600845) , Nengke Co., Ltd., Zhejiang Supcon Technology Co.Ltd(688777) , Glodon Company Limited(002410) , Yonyou Network Technology Co.Ltd(600588) , Kingdee International, Guangzhou Sie Consulting Co.Ltd(300687) , Beijing United Information Technology Co.Ltd(603613) ; 6) Others: Hundsun Technologies Inc(600570) , Yusys Technologies Co.Ltd(300674) , Global Infotech Co.Ltd(300465) , etc.
Risk tips
Repeated outbreaks and macroeconomic downside risks; Risk that the policies and development progress of relevant sectors are lower than expected; The risk that the performance of relevant companies is lower than expected and the risk of intensified competition; Risks that the progress of intellectualization and localization is lower than expected.
