Zhou's view: the layout point is established, and there are three main lines in the next year: core growth, post cycle and new technology
(1) new energy vehicles:
From the following three aspects, the short-term layout point has been determined: (a) the forward price of upstream lithium carbonate has decreased, indicating that the contradiction between supply and demand in the industrial chain is expected to be alleviated; (b) The implementation of performance forecast, Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) , Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) , Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) and other companies' performance forecast in 2021 mostly exceeded expectations, and the long-term growth expectations of industry leaders were repaired; (c) With the implementation of the data, the sales volume of electric vehicles increased by more than 18% month on month in December; It is expected that there will be rush loading in 2022, showing a trend of low in the front and high in the rear.
We believe that the investment in the upward cycle of electric vehicles has entered the third stage, and the supply and demand will be rebalanced in the next year. We pay attention to the three directions we put forward in the next year: (a) core growth: the leaders with high barriers and links, and the first-line leaders such as Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Byd Company Limited(002594) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) will benefit; (b) Post cycle: energy storage, hydrogen energy, charging and changing electricity, etc; (c) New technologies: flat wire, 4680 battery, Gold Cup Electric Apparatus Co.Ltd(002533) and other companies benefit.
(2) photovoltaic:
Recently, the price of photovoltaic industry chain has stabilized, reflecting the improvement of terminal demand at this price level; We believe that the photovoltaic investment stage also enters the third stage (supply release and supply-demand rebalancing stage), and the industrial chain enters the price decline cycle; In this price decline cycle, positive feedback of downstream demand will gradually be generated, which is expected to be more obvious after the Spring Festival.
We are optimistic about the high growth of demand in 2022, mainly about investment opportunities in three aspects: (a) we are optimistic about the opportunities of power station development market + power market-oriented reform, Zhejiang Chint Electrics Co.Ltd(601877) , Jiangsu Linyang Energy Co.Ltd(601222) , Jinko Power Technology Co.Ltd(601778) ; (b) Optimistic about the terminal links such as components and inverters with good competition pattern, Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) , Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) will benefit; (c) In the medium and long term, we are optimistic about the auxiliary material industrial chain with good supply and demand, the innovation at the industrial end (heterojunction, granular silicon, etc.) and the improvement of the market share of advantageous leading companies, Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) , poly GCL energy, Shanghai Aiko Solar Energy Co.Ltd(600732) and so on.
Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) comments: the profit in 2021 is slightly higher than expected, and the strong is always strong
Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) it is expected that the profit in 2021 will slightly exceed the expectation and maintain the "buy" rating. Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) released the performance forecast for 2021. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company will be RMB 2.66-2.76 billion in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 138.44% - 147.40%, including non net profit deducted of RMB 2.557-2.657 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 158.15% - 168.25%, exceeding our expectations. With the continuous penetration of lithium batteries in automobile, energy storage and electric tools markets, we expect that the diaphragm market will still be in a tight balance between supply and demand in the next year, benefiting from the steady growth of the company's wet lithium battery diaphragm shipment during this reporting period.
Sector and company tracking
New energy automobile industry: the sales volume of new energy heavy trucks surged, and the head battery enterprises seized the new track of heavy trucks
New energy vehicle company: Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) in 2021, the net profit attributable to the parent company will reach 2.66 billion yuan to 2.76 billion yuan
Photovoltaic industry level: the national energy administration promotes the repurchase of new energy supporting self built projects
At the level of photovoltaic companies: the 7 billion yuan "Longji bond issuance" opened priority placement and online subscription on January 5
At the level of wind energy industry: the bid winning publicity of Jiangsu 2.65 million KW offshore wind power project, and the three enterprise consortia won the bid
Risk tips: the development of new technologies exceeds expectations, the demand is lower than expectations, and the competition in the new energy market is intensified
