Market performance:
In the current period (2022.1.10-2022.1.14), the non bank (Shenwan) index was – 3.04%, ranking 24 / 31 in the industry, and the brokerage II index was – 3.02%;
Shanghai Composite Index – 1.63%, Shenzhen Component Index – 1.35%, gem index + 0.73%.
The top five stocks in terms of rise and fall: Central China Securities Co.Ltd(601375) (+ 2.27%), China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) (+ 0.11%), Chinalin Securities Co.Ltd(002945) (- 0.32%), Shenwan Hongyuan Group Co.Ltd(000166) (- 0.98%), Northeast Securities Co.Ltd(000686) (- 1.03%); Stocks ranked the top five in terms of rise and fall: Guolian Securities Co.Ltd(601456) (- 6.08%), Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) (- 6.06%), Caida Securities Co.Ltd(600906) (- 5.36%), China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) (- 4.60%), and China stock market news (- 4.53%).
Core view
The securities sector fell 3.02% this week, losing 1.04pct to CSI 300 and 1.39pct to Shanghai stock index. This week, the securities sector continued to callback, and most of the leading stocks were securities companies that continued to make efforts with the wealth management track in 2021, such as Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) , China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) , China stock market news, etc. From the main capital flows of the market in the past five trading days, the total net outflow of the main capital of the securities sector was 4.902 billion yuan, the net outflow of 11 securities companies was more than 100 million yuan, and the net outflow of China stock market news was 1.645 billion yuan. From the perspective of individual stock turnover, the individual stock turnover of China stock market news in recent five trading days has exceeded 20 billion yuan, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) has exceeded 10 billion yuan, Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) , Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) has exceeded 5 billion yuan. We judge that the main reasons for the large callback range of individual stocks with excellent performance in the wealth management track in the short term are as follows: market style switching, game and position adjustment among institutional investors, and high price in the securities sector β This attribute leads to strong uncertainty of investors about the industry, and the announcement of continued interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve may lead to capital outflow. In the long run, there are multiple positive factors with strong certainty in the securities sector:
1. High probability of performance. The annual report performance in 2021 will be announced one after another. From the three quarterly reports, the performance of public funds, market trading volume, the scale of funds raised by investment banks and other market performance, most listed securities companies have a high probability of achieving high growth in 2021. At present, the four securities companies that have announced the performance forecast have achieved significant performance growth.
2. The main line of “steady growth” is clear. For China’s economic development situation in 2022, the central bank, the Ministry of finance, the national development and Reform Commission and other departments will focus on “steady growth”, and it is expected that the “steady growth” policy will continue to work in the future. Therefore, we expect that with the support of stable growth policy, the US interest rate increase will not have much impact on China’s liquidity environment in the short term.
3. The wealth management track has a long slope and thick snow, which is still an important focus of the industry in the future. In 2022, Shanxi Securities Co.Ltd(002500) , Nanjing Securities Co.Ltd(601990) and Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) have successively passed the qualification of fund investment advisory business exhibition. At present, 17 securities companies have conducted fund investment advisory business exhibition. In terms of public fund business, according to the statistics of China Foundation Association, as of November 2021, China had issued 9152 public funds, with a total share of 21.61 trillion yuan and a net asset value of 25.32 trillion yuan, an increase of 17.59%, 32.36% and 35.01% respectively year-on-year. In terms of private fund business, according to the statistics of China Foundation Association, by the end of December 2021, the scale of managed funds in China’s private fund market had reached 19.76 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.69%, with a total number of 124100 products issued, a year-on-year increase of 28.15%. In terms of securities settlement fund business, in 2021, the share and scale of China’s securities settlement model funds reached 180.18 billion and 313.54 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 113.15% and 93.96%. The rapid expansion of the scale of securities settlement funds has brought new impetus to the wealth management transformation of some securities companies. The overall performance of the wealth management business grew rapidly. With the support of policies, the internal account management function was optimized, the risk capital was liberalized, the participation of securities lending and other innovative businesses were frequently implemented, and the business model was diversified.
To sum up, we believe that the current negative factors have limited impact on the long-term growth of the securities sector, so we are not afraid of short-term disturbance. At present, the Pb valuation of the securities sector has reached 1.65 times, close to the 40th percentile since 2016, and once again entered the allocation range with high cost performance. We are firmly optimistic about two main lines of the securities sector: one is to pay attention to the leading securities companies with high performance growth and undervalued value, such as Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) , Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) , and the other is to pay attention to the wealth management beneficiary securities companies, such as Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) , China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) .
Risk tips: strengthened supervision, intensified external market risks, market fluctuations and repeated epidemic situations
