Core view
After the real estate cycle this week, all sectors fell, and the performance of black household appliances and lighting electricians was relatively strong. The CSI 300 index fell 1.98% this week. Among the sectors in the post real estate cycle, the black household appliances and lighting electricians fell 0.77% and 0.73% respectively this week, outperforming the market by 1.22pct and 1.25pct respectively. The white household appliances, kitchen appliances, small household appliances, furniture and service Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) sectors fell 6.75%, 6.39%, 5.94%, 4.39% and 2.17% respectively this week, outperforming the market by 4.77pct and 4.40pct respectively 3.96pct、2.40pct、0.18pct。
Domestic sales: in December, the transaction volume of second-hand houses in major cities continued to grow negatively year-on-year. (1) Price of upstream raw materials: this week, the price of furniture sector fell, the price of chemical raw materials for soft furniture rose, the price of copper and aluminum rose, and the price trend of plastic raw materials differentiated. (2) China's real estate demand: in November, the sales area of new houses continued to grow negatively year-on-year, and the completed area turned to a positive growth year-on-year; In December, the transaction volume of second-hand houses continued to decline year-on-year. According to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics, the national residential sales area decreased by 16.3% year-on-year in November 2021 and 6.8% year-on-year in November 2019; In terms of second-hand housing transactions, in December 2021, the transaction volume of second-hand housing in China's top 10 cities was 45700 units, a year-on-year decrease of 39%; In terms of the opening of hardbound houses, according to the statistical data of ovicloud, the opening volume of hardbound houses nationwide was about 302000 units in November 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 10.8%. (3) Retail tracking: in November 2021, the retail sales of furniture increased by 6.1% year-on-year, and the retail sales of household appliances increased by 6.6% year-on-year. In terms of breakdown categories, according to the monitoring data of ovicloud, in December 2021, the online retail sales of integrated stove and sweeping Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) increased by 0.8% and 20.5% respectively year-on-year, the online sales of kitchen power and small household appliances decreased by 16.4% and 24% respectively year-on-year, and the online retail sales of cleaning appliances increased by 11.9% year-on-year. According to the statistics of Amoy data platform, the year-on-year growth rate of multi brand sales of large household appliances, kitchen appliances and household appliances was negative in December 2021.
Investment proposal and investment object
Export: in December, the export volume of furniture industry turned to negative growth year-on-year, and the export volume of home appliance industry maintained positive growth year-on-year (1) overseas real estate demand: in November 2021, the sales of existing homes in the United States decreased by 2% year-on-year, and continued to negative growth; In November, the number of new construction projects increased by 8% year-on-year, turning to positive growth. (2) Export performance of sectors and sub categories: in December 2021, the export volume of furniture industry turned to a year-on-year negative growth (- 4%), and the export volume of home appliance industry maintained a year-on-year positive growth (18%). According to the data disclosed by the General Administration of customs, in November 2021, the export volume of air conditioners, washing machines, range hoods and other categories continued the high growth trend since the third quarter, and the year-on-year growth rate of export volume of vacuum cleaners and other categories decreased
The demand for domestic sales and export continued to grow rapidly in the post real estate cycle. It is suggested to pay attention to the customized home leaders Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) (002572, buy), Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) (603833, overweight), Guangzhou Shangpin Home Collection Co.Ltd(300616) (300616, overweight), Zbom Home Collection Co.Ltd(603801) (603801, not rated), and software furniture leaders Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) (603816, not rated); Benefiting from the high growth of emerging categories such as floor sweepers and small household appliances, it is recommended to pay attention to China's floor sweepers Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) leaders Ecovacs Robotics Co.Ltd(603486) (603486, overweight), Beijing Roborock Technology Co.Ltd(688169) (688169, buy), small household appliances leaders with continuous category innovation Joyoung Co.Ltd(002242) (002242, overweight), Guangdong Xinbao Electrical Appliances Holdings Co.Ltd(002705) (002705, buy), Bear Electric Appliance Co.Ltd(002959) (002959, overweight), Shenzhen Crastal Technology Co.Ltd(300824) (300824, overweight).
Risk tips
The risk of real estate sales and completion falling short of expectations, and the risk of sharp rise in the price of raw materials
