Copper aluminum, cobalt lithium and precious metal sectors are recommended. This week (January 10-january 14, 2022), the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.63%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell 1.98%, the SW nonferrous index rose 1.69%, Comex gold rose 1.16% and silver rose 2.70%. Among the prices of major industrial metals, LME aluminum, copper, zinc, lead, nickel and tin changed by 2.21%, 0.59%, – 0.08%, 3.49%, 7.01% and 1.08% respectively; LME aluminum, copper, zinc, lead, nickel and tin in major industrial metal inventories changed by – 2.76%, 1.80%, 5.26%, 0.46%, 2.50% and 3.86% respectively.
Industrial metals: under the background of China’s stable economy, tight supply supports the overall upward trend of industrial metal prices. Core view: China’s steady growth continues to develop, the construction in downstream areas is stronger than that in the same period, the overall performance of industrial metals is not weak in the off-season, and in copper, China’s wide credit and low inventory support the rise of internal prices; The US Federal Reserve has frequently taken hawkish stance, emphasizing the expectation of raising interest rates. However, the market trading logic lies in the strong economic recovery and the support of external prices. In terms of aluminum, China’s supply side is running at a low level, and the demand side is weakened due to the end of goods preparation before the Spring Festival, but the market stock removal is obvious, supporting the rise of Shanghai aluminum prices; Under the pessimistic expectation of energy shortage in Europe, Lun aluminum continued to rise. In terms of tin, the supply side fluctuates less, China’s inventory is tight, the demand side just needs to prepare goods, and the price of Shanghai tin is strong; The US dollar fell and Lunxi was supported with a higher performance. In terms of nickel, the arrival volume of pure nickel is limited. However, downstream stainless steel and nickel sulfate enterprises actively prepare goods, the inventory of pure nickel continues to decline, and the nickel price continues to rise sharply. Focus on: Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) , China Molybdenum Co.Ltd(603993) , Shandong Nanshan Aluminium Co.Ltd(600219) , Yunnan Aluminium Co.Ltd(000807) , Henan Shenhuo Coal&Power Co.Ltd(000933) , Sunstone Development Co.Ltd(603612) , Ye Chiu Metal Recycling (China) Ltd(601388) , Yunnan Tin Co.Ltd(000960) etc.
Energy metals: the supply decreased at the end of the year, the contradiction between supply and demand remained, and the price of lithium salt rose sharply. Core view: in January 2022, the pre arranged single ring ratio increased, and the downstream demand for electric vehicles was strong. In terms of cobalt, the preparation and mining of electrolytic cobalt before the festival was basically completed, and the market was in a wait-and-see state. Affected by foreign prices, the price of electrolytic cobalt in China increased slightly; The spot inventory of cobalt intermediate products is short and the price is high; The price of ternary precursor increased slightly due to the impact of cost side procurement. In terms of lithium, lithium carbonate inventory is limited, the downstream shortage is high, and the price still rises sharply within the week; At the end of the year, the demand for high nickel increased significantly, the price of lithium hydroxide rose sharply, and the price difference between lithium hydroxide and lithium carbonate was significantly repaired. The Chilean Court suspended two lithium production contracts with a total of 160000 tons awarded this week, adding another haze to the global lithium supply in the future. Focus on: Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) , Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) , Tibet Mineral Development Co.Ltd(000762) , China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co.Ltd(600111) etc.
Precious metals: gold prices are supported by the expectation of global economic recovery. Core view: the CPI of the United States rose by 7% in December 2021, a new high since 1982. The Federal Reserve frequently released the signal of interest rate increase, the expectation of table contraction was strong, the yield of US bonds rose, and the upward pressure on gold price; However, the overseas epidemic is still severe, the momentum of economic recovery is weak, and there is still uncertainty about whether the Fed can successfully shrink the table in the future. At the same time, inflation is accelerating, the gold price still has strong support and is still optimistic about the future gold price. Focus on: Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600988) , Yintai Gold Co.Ltd(000975) , Zhaojin gold industry and Shandong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600547) .
Risk warning: the recovery of demand is less than expected, the release of supply is more than expected, and the policy uncertainty is enhanced.
