Zhou's view: continue to be optimistic about independent rise + electric intelligence + motorcycle
Great changes have taken place in automotive intelligent and electric, reshaping the industrial order, and looking forward to the golden decade of the automotive industry. At present, the market is too pessimistic about terminal demand and has poor expectations. China Automobile Association released the production and sales data of passenger cars in December 2021. With the ease of core shortage, the output accelerated, and the retail chain was + 16%. Under the mismatch of supply and demand, some demand lags behind. The inventory building in November and December lays the foundation for the impulse at the end of the year. It is expected that the demand will further increase after the discount is enlarged; The sales of new energy passenger vehicles continued to rise, with monthly sales of nearly 500000 vehicles. This year's automobile market will be a beta resonance market. Core portfolio of this month [ Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) , Byd Company Limited(002594) , Suzhou Sonavox Electronics Co.Ltd(688533) , Shanghai Yanpu Metal Products Co.Ltd(605128) , Jiangsu Xinquan Automotive Trim Co.Ltd(603179) , Zhejiang Cfmoto Power Co.Ltd(603129) ].
Passenger cars: terminal demand exceeded expectations. In December 2021, the output / wholesale sales / retail sales of narrow passenger cars were 247.8/238.0/2105000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 8.5% / + 2.2% / - 8.0% and a month-on-month increase of + 13.1% / + 10.6% / + 15.9%. Retail sales improved significantly. Under the mismatch of supply and demand, some demand lags behind. The establishment of the warehouse in November and December lays the foundation for the impulse at the end of the year. It is expected that the demand will further increase after the discount is enlarged. In December, the wholesale sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles was 498000, a year-on-year increase of + 120.6%, a month on month increase of + 16.6%, and the corresponding penetration rate reached 20.9%. Firmly optimistic about the independent rise, realize the brand upward and increase the market share through reform, recommend [Geely Automobile h, Byd Company Limited(002594) , Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) , Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) ], and benefit the target [Xiaopeng automobile h, ideal automobile H].
Parts: Electric Intelligence reshapes the industrial order, rapid performance growth + new fixed-point catalysis, and firmly look at many parts. Intellectualization will be the core theme of this year. Intelligent driving and intelligent cockpit will accelerate together, and we are optimistic about the accelerated penetration of acoustics + chassis by wire + domain controller; Electrification accelerates the development of lightweight, Tesla leads the integrated die casting, increases the industry capacity and improves the industry concentration. It is recommended to select the target from the customer dimension (new forces and other industrial chains) + product dimension (incremental components), and the two-dimensional resonance is the best: preferred acoustics - [ Suzhou Sonavox Electronics Co.Ltd(688533) ], wire controlled chassis - [ Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) ], domain controller - [ Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) ], ceiling glass - [ Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co.Ltd(600660) ], integrated die casting - [ Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) ], intelligent seat - [ Ningbo Jifeng Auto Parts Co.Ltd(603997) , Shanghai Yanpu Metal Products Co.Ltd(605128) ], interior - [ Jiangsu Xinquan Automotive Trim Co.Ltd(603179) ], platform - [ Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) ].
1. Customer dimension:
Tesla and new power models have faster iteration speed and shorter supply chain verification cycle than traditional fuel vehicles. At the same time, the supply chain tends to be flat. The accelerated growth of sales drives the performance growth curve of industrial chain companies to become steeper. Tesla's industrial chain recommends [ Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Jiangsu Xinquan Automotive Trim Co.Ltd(603179) , Wuxi Longsheng Technology Co.Ltd(300680) ] with greater flexibility, [ Nanjing Chervon Auto Precision Technology Co.Ltd(603982) , Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co.Ltd(603305) ] with benefit targets and [ Ningbo Hengshuai Co.Ltd(300969) ] with potential benefit targets. Byd Company Limited(002594) industry chain recommendation [ Suzhou Sonavox Electronics Co.Ltd(688533) ], beneficiary targets [ Shinry Technologies Co.Ltd(300745) , Nanjing Chervon Auto Precision Technology Co.Ltd(603982) ]. Weilai and Huawei industrial chain recommend [ Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) , Suzhou Sonavox Electronics Co.Ltd(688533) , Shanghai Yanpu Metal Products Co.Ltd(605128) ].
2. Product dimension:
1) electrification increment: three power [ Byd Company Limited(002594) , Wuxi Longsheng Technology Co.Ltd(300680) ], beneficiary subject [ Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) (covered by the new power group), Shinry Technologies Co.Ltd(300745) ]; New energy thermal management [ Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Zhejiang Yinlun Machinery Co.Ltd(002126) ], beneficiary objects [ Ningbo Hengshuai Co.Ltd(300969) , Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) , Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co.Ltd(002050) ]; Lightweight [ Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) , Ikd Co.Ltd(600933) , Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) ], beneficial objects [ Nanjing Chervon Auto Precision Technology Co.Ltd(603982) , Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co.Ltd(603305) , Guangdong Hoshion Aluminium Co.Ltd(002824) ].
2) intelligent increment: automatic driving [ Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) *, Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) , Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co.Ltd(601799) ], benefiting from [Nextel]; Intelligent cockpit [ Suzhou Sonavox Electronics Co.Ltd(688533) , Shanghai Yanpu Metal Products Co.Ltd(605128) , Ningbo Jifeng Auto Parts Co.Ltd(603997) , Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co.Ltd(600660) , Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) *, Keboda Technology Co.Ltd(603786) ] ( Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) and Fuyao are jointly covered with computer group and building materials group respectively).
Motorcycles: in November, China sold 26000 medium and large displacement motorcycles, with a year-on-year increase of + 47.5% and a month on month increase of - 10.6% (299600 motorcycles were sold from January to November, with a year-on-year increase of + 62.2%). Medium and large displacement motorcycles represent the direction of consumption upgrading, with huge market potential. Their share will focus on independent and joint venture brands with outstanding brand strength, leading powertrain technology and perfect channel layout. Recommended [ Zhejiang Cfmoto Power Co.Ltd(603129) , Zhejiang Qianjiang Motorcycle Co.Ltd(000913) ].
This week's market: overall stronger than the market, led by auto parts
This week, the A-share auto sector rose 1.66%, ranking No. 4 in shenwanzi industry, stronger than Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 (down 1.81%). Among the segments, auto parts, automobiles and other transportation equipment increased by 4.18%, 1.66% and 1.42% respectively, and passenger cars, trucks, automobile services and buses decreased by 0.82%, 0.98%, 0.99% and 1.09% respectively.
This week's data: retail sales improved slightly and wholesale sales decreased slightly
In the first week of January, the average daily wholesale was 52000 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of - 4% and a month on month increase of - 2%; The average daily retail sales volume was 58000, with a year-on-year increase of + 6% and a month on month increase of + 27%.
Risk tips
Chip supply shortage; Fluctuations in raw material costs; Sales recovery was less than expected.
