Express delivery: in December, the number of pieces in the industry increased by 10.7%, the unit price increased month on month, and the price in the main grain producing areas fluctuated slightly; Yuantong's performance forecast fulfills the price profit elasticity of the industry. Zhongtong puts forward a new pattern of high-quality development in 2022 and is optimistic about the inflection point of high-quality development of the express industry.
1) in December, the volume of the express industry increased by 10.7%, the unit price was + 2.3% month on month, and the price in the main grain producing areas fluctuated slightly: ① business volume: the volume of the express industry in December was 10.25 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of + 10.7%, and the volume growth in December decreased by 5.8 PTS month on month, which was in line with expectations under the background of the high base of last year and the slowdown of consumption growth in peak seasons. ② Unit price: in December, the average unit price of the industry was 9.70 yuan, a year-on-year increase of - 3.1%, a month on month increase of + 2.3% (an increase of 0.21 yuan), and the average price performance of the industry slightly exceeded expectations. ③ Grain producing areas: in December, Yiwu's parts volume was + 3.0% year-on-year, the unit price was + 8.4% (+ 0.24 yuan) year-on-year and - 6.7% (- 0.22 yuan) month on month. The high price in Yiwu fell slightly, and the growth rate of parts was under pressure; The number of pieces in Guangzhou was + 34.9% year-on-year, the unit price was - 25.6% year-on-year and - 5.1% month on month (-0.36 yuan); The quantity of Jieyang parts was + 24.8% year-on-year, the unit price was - 21.9% year-on-year, and the chain ratio was + 0.6% (+ 0.02 yuan). The prices in the main grain producing areas fluctuated slightly and showed a stable trend on the whole.
2) the notice on promoting the priority of grass-roots express outlets to participate in work-related injury insurance was issued to accelerate the protection of the rights and interests of couriers: this week, the Ministry of human resources and social security and the State Post Office jointly issued the notice on promoting the priority of grass-roots express outlets to participate in work-related injury insurance, which defined the corresponding insurance methods for different types of express enterprises; It stipulates the principle of verifying the benchmark rate of industrial injury insurance and the principle of real-time floating adjustment of specific rate. The regulators have implemented the rights and interests protection of couriers at all levels. At the same time, they also strengthen the theme of high-quality development of the industry, and are optimistic that the express industry will move towards a new competitive stage of service upgrading and product stratification.
3) the performance of Yuantong Q4 exceeded expectations and the price profit elasticity was realized; Zhongtong held a national network work conference and proposed a new pattern of high-quality development: ① Yuantong predicted that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 would be 2-2.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.2% - 24.52%, and Q4 predicted that the net profit attributable to the parent company would be 1.046-1.246 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 174.68% - 227.20%. The company's Q4 performance exceeded expectations. The core reason is that the industry terminal price rose and the express price profit sensitivity was high. According to our calculation, the company's 21q1-q4 single ticket express profit was 0.10, 0.04, 0.04 and 0.14 yuan respectively, and the Q4 profit level increased significantly. ② Zhongtong held the national network work conference in 2022, summarized that the company completed 23.3 billion business in 2021, a year-on-year increase of + 31.1%, set the task goal of increasing share and profit, and promote the new pattern of high-quality development of Zhongtong with digital intelligence.
Express industry policies have been issued intensively, the short-term price center of Tongda has moved upward, the medium and long-term development direction has been determined, and the industry inflection point and leading competitiveness are optimistic. SF business inflection point has been established and is optimistic about the leading value of comprehensive logistics. Policy supervision continues to pay attention to the rights and interests of couriers, curb irrational competition and emphasize high-quality development. Tongda is the upward movement of the express price center. It is expected that the profits of leading enterprises will be significantly improved in 2022; On the supply side, after Jitu acquired Baishi, it once again strengthened the competition pattern of the industry head; From a medium and long-term perspective, under the background of continuous improvement of online penetration, the demand growth of the express industry is highly deterministic, and service has become a new competitive factor. After the pattern is stable, the industry leaders will fully benefit from the increase of share and profit; A shares mainly recommend S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) (the inflection point of fundamentals is established), Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) , Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) , and U.S. stocks are optimistic about China Express.
Aviation: the epidemic situation in China has been repeated. We pay attention to the travel policy and demand during the Spring Festival transportation, and are optimistic about the reversal of industry supply and demand after the epidemic.
1) the margin of aviation supply and demand improved in December, and the year-on-year decline of the total supply and demand of the three major airlines narrowed compared with that in November: according to the national civil aviation work conference, in 2021, the civil aviation industry completed a total of 85.7 billion ton kilometers, 440 million person times and 7.32 million tons of transportation volume, an increase of 7.3%, 5.5% and 8.2% respectively, and recovered to 66.3%, 66.8% and 97.2% in 2019. In December, the total RPK of the three major airlines was - 35.7% year-on-year (- 52.5% in November) and + 26.3% month on month; Total ask was - 29.2% YoY (- 43.1% in November) and + 21.9% mom; The total seating rate was 62.7%, with a year-on-year rate of - 6.3pts and a month on month rate of + 2.2pts. In December, the year-on-year decline of RPK and ask of the three major airlines was narrower than that in November, and the seat rate increased month on month, Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) continued to lead the industry with 74.7% seat rate.
2) the Omicron mutant caused a new round of epidemic spread. Pay attention to the local prevention and control situation and return policy during the Spring Festival transportation: as of January 15, there were 6936 confirmed cases of epidemic in China, and 158 new cases were added on the same day (including 39 new cases in Tianjin and 52 new cases in Henan). Recently, the epidemic situation in various parts of China has been repeated, and the number of new overseas diagnoses has continued to reach a new high. According to the instructions of who and the Ministry of health, the infection of Omicron virus is strong and the mortality rate is low, and the existing vaccine can effectively reduce the severe and mortality of Omicron. Approaching the peak of passenger flow during the Spring Festival, the Ministry of transport has indicated that it is necessary to prevent one size fits all and add weight at all levels, and pay attention to the return policies and aviation demand performance of all localities during the Spring Festival.
On the demand side, the worst period of the epidemic is basically over. With the promotion of vaccination and specific drugs, the suppressed travel demand will gradually recover. On the supply side, the introduction of airlines' transport capacity is slow, Boeing and Airbus orders accumulate, and even the 737max go around still does not change the low growth of transport capacity. The low growth of supply in the medium term has high certainty. In addition, the market-oriented reform of civil aviation fares opens up the space for price elasticity. The inflection point of supply and demand certainty is superimposed on the upward fare, and aviation is expected to usher in a growth cycle. Focus on recommending Air China Limited(601111) with high-quality routes (which will significantly benefit from the recovery of official travel); Low cost aviation leader Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) ; China line accounts for a high proportion of China Southern Airlines Company Limited(600029) with large performance flexibility; China Eastern Airlines with obvious location advantages; Focus on Regional Airlines China Express Airlines Co.Ltd(002928) .
Airport: there is strong uncertainty in the passenger flow of Spring Festival transportation, Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) it is preliminarily predicted that the pick-up and transfer passengers of Spring Festival transportation this year are lower than those in previous years; In 2022, civil aviation will strive to turn losses into profits as a whole.
1) Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) this year's Spring Festival transportation is expected to pick up and send 3.318 million passengers, with a year-on-year increase of - 10.8%: in December Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) , the number of aircraft take-off and landing sorties was - 35.26%, the passenger throughput was - 49.13% and the cargo throughput was + 8.23% year-on-year. According to the official forecast, during the Spring Festival transportation this year (1.17-2.25, a total of 40 days) Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) there will be 32900 flights and 3.318 million passengers; During the 40 day spring festival transportation in 21 years Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) a total of 36600 flights were guaranteed and 3.7198 million passengers were picked up and sent. At present, there is strong uncertainty in the passenger flow of Spring Festival transportation, and the transportation scale is lower than that in previous years.
2) in 2022, civil aviation will strive to turn losses and increase profits as a whole, and generally return to the level of about 85% before the epidemic: according to the national civil aviation work conference in 2022, the annual flight normality rate reached 88%, and remained above 80% for four consecutive years.
In 2022, civil aviation will strive to return to the level of about 85% before the epidemic, of which the total transportation turnover will be 104 billion ton kilometers, a year-on-year increase of + 21.4%, and return to 80.4% before the epidemic; The passenger traffic volume was 570 million person times, a year-on-year increase of + 29.6%, returning to 86.4% before the epidemic; Cargo and mail transportation volume was 7.8 million tons, a year-on-year increase of + 6.6%, an increase of 3.6% compared with that before the epidemic. Under the condition that the epidemic situation does not fluctuate repeatedly, we will strive to turn losses and increase profits in the industry as a whole.
The short-term airport aviation business has declined due to the disturbance of the epidemic, and the epidemic in China is generally controllable. With the continuous promotion of vaccination, China's international aviation passenger flow is expected to gradually recover. In the long run, the airport's aviation business is stable, and the tax-free industry has huge space. Listed airports will continue to benefit from tax-free dividends in the future, focusing on the airport leaders Shanghai International Airport Co.Ltd(600009) , Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) .
Road and Railway: it is expected that the number of passengers sent by the Spring Festival transportation nationwide this year will increase by 35.6% year-on-year, and decrease by 60.4% year-on-year compared with 2019: the National Health Commission said that China's general strategy of "external defense input and internal defense rebound" and the general policy of "dynamic clearing" are still effective in preventing Omicron mutant. According to the prediction of the Ministry of transport, this year's Spring Festival transportation will send 1.18 billion passengers nationwide, with an average of 29.5 million passengers per day, an increase of 35.6% over 2021, a decrease of 20.3% over 2020 and a decrease of 60.4% over 2019. Overall, this year's Spring Festival transportation will show the characteristics of "medium and low total passenger flow, little change in passenger flow composition, relatively concentrated travel after the festival, and tidal temporal and spatial distribution". In addition, in terms of epidemic prevention and traffic control, the requirements of "it is strictly prohibited to set epidemic prevention and control checkpoints on the provincial boundary main line of Expressway without authorization, and counties and villages shall not block or isolate expressways, national and provincial trunk lines and rural roads without authorization" are given.
This week's investment strategy: Express policy is released intensively again to determine the future growth expectation and high-quality development path of the industry. The short-term accessibility profit will be significantly repaired. The industry will gradually turn to service differentiated competition and be optimistic about the inflection point and leading value of the industry. In addition, Shunfeng, the comprehensive logistics dragon head, ushered in the operation inflection point; China's aviation demand continues to recover, and the international line is expected to improve marginally. At the same time, the supply certainty slows down. We are optimistic about the reversal of supply and demand in the aviation industry, the superposition of fare market-oriented reform, opening up flexible space, and the industry entering the growth cycle. Combination this week: S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) , Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) , Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) , Air China Limited(601111) , Juneyao Airlines Co.Ltd(603885) .
Risk tips:
1) the risk of macroeconomic downturn will have a great impact on the overall demand for transportation.
2) the price competition in the express industry exceeds the market expectation. At present, the price war in the express industry is generally controllable, but it does not rule out a large-scale price war, eroding the profits of listed companies.
3) risk of rising oil price and labor cost. Transportation and labor costs, as the main costs of transportation companies, may face the risk of rising oil prices and sharply rising labor costs.
