One week market review
This week, the Shenwan real estate index fell 3.5%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell 1.98%, and the relative income was – 1.52%. The performance of the sector was weaker than the market.
Industry fundamentals
This week (01.07-01.13), a total of 60899 first-hand houses were sold in 58 key cities tracked by West China real estate group, with a year-on-year growth rate of – 31.5% and a month on month growth rate of 10.6%; The total transaction area was 6.359 million square meters, with a year-on-year growth rate of – 30.3% and a month on month growth rate of 14.8%.
This week (01.07-01.13), a total of 17096 second-hand houses were sold in 16 key cities tracked by West China real estate group, with a year-on-year growth rate of – 13.4% and a month on month growth rate of 74.7%; The total transaction area was 1.771 million square meters, with a year-on-year growth rate of – 8.5% and a month on month growth rate of 96.8%.
This week (01.07-01.13), the inventory area of commercial housing in 17 key cities tracked by West China real estate group was 196.801 million square meters, with a month on month growth rate of – 0.1%, and the decontamination cycle was 71.3 weeks.
This week (01.03-01.09), in terms of land supply, 4.792 million square meters of land were supplied this week, with a year-on-year growth rate of – 89.9%; The average supply price was 10026 yuan / m2, with a year-on-year growth rate of 436.7%.
This week (01.07-01.13), real estate enterprises issued a total of 12.03 billion yuan of credit bonds, with a year-on-year growth rate of – 34.7% and a month-on-month growth rate of 77.2%. Real estate collective trusts issued a total of 5.92 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of – 67.7% and a month on month growth rate of 158%.
Investment advice
This week, on January 12, the central bank released the financial data of December. In December, the social finance scale increased by 2.37 trillion yuan in the month, an increase of 720.6 billion yuan year-on-year, and the social finance stock scale was 314.1 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.3%. M1 stock was 64.7 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.5%; The stock of M2 was 238.3 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.0%. RMB loans increased by 1.13 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 123.4 billion yuan, and the stock of RMB loans was 192.7 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.6%. The medium and long-term loans to residents were 355.8 billion yuan, an increase of 83.4 billion yuan less than the same period last year. According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, in December 2021, the price of new commercial housing in 15 of the 70 large and medium-sized cities increased month on month, compared with 9 in November; On a month on month basis, Hangzhou led the way with an increase of 0.5%, while Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen were flat, up 0.4%, down 0.6% and down 0.1% respectively. In December 2021, the sales price of commercial housing showed a downward trend month on month, and the year-on-year increase decreased. The sales prices of new commercial houses and second-hand houses in first tier cities increased by 4.4% and 5.3% respectively year-on-year, down 0.4 and 0.5 percentage points respectively from the previous month. The sales prices of new commercial houses and second-hand houses in second tier cities increased by 2.8% and 1.5% respectively year-on-year, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous month. China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) the company’s 3 billion yuan M & A notes have been registered on January 12. In the first phase, RMB 2.58 billion was issued, of which RMB 1.29 billion was used to acquire the equity of the residential project company to inject funds into the project company to ensure the smooth progress of the project.
At present, the valuation of the real estate sector is at a low level, with strong performance certainty and high dividends. We mainly recommend Vanke A, Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Jinke Property Group Co.Ltd(000656) , Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) , Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) , Longguang group, Xuhui holding group, country garden, Baolong real estate and country garden services in property management sector, China Merchants Property Operation & Service Co.Ltd(001914) , Xincheng Yue service, Xuhui Yongsheng service, New Dazheng Property Group Co.Ltd(002968) and Nacity Property Service Group Co.Ltd(603506) . Relevant beneficiary objects include Longhu group, China Jinmao, poly property, green city services, etc.
Risk tips
Sales were lower than expected, and the real estate regulation policy was tightened.
