Vehicle cycle positioning: at present, the inventory cycle of the automobile industry is in the passive replenishment stage
At the end of the active replenishment cycle, the industry began to enter the passive replenishment stage in May 2021. In the passive replenishment stage, the investment feature of the automobile sector is the replenishment of stagflation stocks within the sector.
The auto parts sector has ushered in medium-term and long-term configuration opportunities
The current cycle positioning of the auto cycle is conducive to the valuation and repair of the parts sector: the sales growth of the auto industry shows significant cyclical characteristics, and the prosperity is driven by the inventory cycle. The auto cycle bottomed out in the fourth quarter of 2019. After the passive destocking (recovery period) in 2020 and the active replenishment (overheating period) in the first half of 2021, the industry is in a passive replenishment (stagflation period) at this stage. In the stagflation period, the investment feature of the automobile sector is that the stagflation stocks within the sector make up for the rise. After experiencing the recovery period and overheating period of the industry, the parts sector is the main stagflation sector during the stagflation period. With the “normalization” of chip supply, the replenishment of the industry will drive the revenue growth of the parts industry upward.
Auto parts is the main investment direction in the next round of production capacity cycle of the industry, and is expected to produce a global leading enterprise: the SUV penetration rate exceeded 10% in 2011, opening the zhugra cycle of the industry for about 10 years. In 2021, the penetration rate of electric vehicles exceeded 10%. As an important intelligent hardware, the electronic and electrical architecture of automobiles is changing from distributed to domain centralized. In the ten-year cycle, the penetration rate of intelligent electric vehicles has increased rapidly and is opening a new round of zhugra cycle in the industry. The first half of electrification has created a number of global leading companies such as Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) . The second half of intelligence is expected to create a new batch of global leading auto parts enterprises in the next 10 years. The auto parts sector is the main investment direction of the production capacity cycle in the next 10 years.
How to select Auto Parts Companies: we believe that the trend of automotive electronic and electrical architecture from distributed to three domains will become an important stock selection clue for auto parts. Among them, it is recommended to pay attention to Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) in the intelligent cockpit domain, and the penetration rate of wire controlled chassis in the automatic driving domain is expected to accelerate in the next round of vehicle inventory cycle. Recommend Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) , Zhejiang Asia-Pacific Mechanical & Electronic Co.Ltd(002284) , and pay attention to Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) .
Investment advice
At the end of this round of active replenishment cycle, the industry has determined to enter the passive replenishment stage in May 2021. The passenger car sector has been fully repaired through valuation during the recovery period, with a significant premium over the parts sector. Before confirming the recovery of a new round of automobile cycle, there is only a band opportunity. Sub industries rotate in the automobile sector, and the parts sector is expected to become the main line of optimal configuration.
For passenger cars, it is recommended to focus on Geely Automobile, Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) , Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) and Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) ; The parts section recommends Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) , Zhejiang Asia-Pacific Mechanical & Electronic Co.Ltd(002284) , Zhejiang Zhaofeng Mechanical And Electronic Co.Ltd(300695) related companies of chassis by wire. It is recommended to pay attention to Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) (communication group coverage), Shanghai Baolong Automotive Corporation(603197) , Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) and Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) .
Risk tip: the real estate squeeze on consumption and the higher than expected rise of raw material costs will lead to the expected recovery of the low gross profit margin of the industry; The global chip shortage imposes more constraints on automobile supply than expected, resulting in the risk of sales falling short of expectations
