Focus this week: AI media consulting released the special report on the development trend of global e-cigarette industry from 2021 to 2022. The global retail scale of new tobacco continues to grow, which is expected to reach US $86.7 billion in 2023 and 24.2% CAGR in 2020-2023. Harm reduction is the core appeal of tobacco evolution.
The global retail scale of new-type tobacco has increased rapidly, and the domestic sales and export scale of China's e-cigarettes have increased significantly
According to the data of AI media consulting, the global retail scale of new tobacco in 2020 is US $45.3 billion, which is expected to reach US $86.7 billion in 2023, and the CAGR from 2020 to 2023 is 24.2%. The retail scale of the global atomized electronic cigarette industry was 18.6% from 2018 to 2021. It is estimated that the retail scale will reach US $42.44 billion in 2022, with a year-on-year increase of 18.4%; The retail scale of the global HNB industry has a compound growth rate of 58.4% from 2018 to 2021. It is expected that the retail scale will reach US $31.37 billion in 2022, a year-on-year increase of 49%. The domestic market scale of China's e-cigarette industry also continues to grow, with a year-on-year increase of 76.0% in 2022 and a market scale of 25.52 billion yuan; The scale of export market is expected to increase by 63.4% year-on-year in 2022, reaching 165.88 billion yuan. In terms of employment, in 2021, the direct employment population of China's e-cigarette industry was about 1.5 million, driving the indirect employment population of about 4 million, a total of about 5.5 million.
Global authorities generally believe that the harm of e-cigarettes is significantly reduced, and Chinese cigarette consumers have a strong willingness to reduce the harm
Mainstream foreign authorities generally believe that the harm of e-cigarettes is far less than that of traditional tobacco at this stage. The British Ministry of Public Health said that the use of e-cigarettes can reduce the harm by 95% compared with traditional tobacco. The paper released by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in 2020 also showed that the content of tobacco specific nitrosamine (TSNA) metabolite NNAL in the urine of e-cigarette users is very low, Only 2.2% of cigarette users. At the same time, according to the survey data of AI media consulting, harm reduction has become an urgent demand of Chinese traditional tobacco consumers. 74.1% of Chinese traditional tobacco consumers are worried that smoking will affect their health. In terms of consumption experience, according to the survey data of AI media consulting, more than 60% of Chinese atomized e-cigarette consumers are satisfied or very satisfied with the product price, appearance, taste, operation and purchase channels, and 42.7% of consumers said they would increase e-cigarette consumption expenditure.
China has an advantage in the global e-cigarette industry, and private enterprises promote the development of the industry through technological innovation
According to AI media consulting data, in 2021, the global e-cigarette retail scale was USD 56.9 billion, about RMB 362.49 billion. In 2021, the export market scale of China's e-cigarette industry was RMB 101.5 billion, accounting for nearly 30% of the global retail scale. Chinese private e-cigarette brands, such as Yueke, have been deployed in the field of e-cigarettes for many years and have made innovative achievements in product and material R & D and production technology. According to the survey data of AI media consulting, 60.0% and 48.2% of Chinese e-cigarette consumers prefer Yueke and Magic Flute respectively. At the same time, since 2021, the State Council has successively issued and improved the relevant national standards and management methods of e-cigarettes, and made it clear that e-cigarettes are managed by the Tobacco Monopoly Bureau. We believe that the implementation of China's e-cigarette supervision will effectively push up the industry threshold, improve the concentration and benefit the upstream and downstream leading enterprises of the industry.
Investment recommendation 1) HNB industry chain: key recommendation - Warburg international / shares (China tobacco flavor leader, new private license of thin sheet) [joint coverage with food and beverage team], Shenzhen Jinjia Group Co.Ltd(002191) (China Tobacco standard faucet, sole strategic cooperation with Yunnan tobacco, private enterprise) [joint coverage with light industry group]; It is suggested to pay attention to: Anhui Genuine New Materials Co.Ltd(603429) , Shanghai Shunho New Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002565) , Shantou Dongfeng Printing Co.Ltd(601515) [light industry team coverage], China Tobacco Hong Kong and Bolton, China. 2) Atomization industry chain: key recommendation - smore International (leading global atomization equipment manufacturer), followed by fog core technology (leading Chinese atomization brand) and Shenzhen Aisidi Co.Ltd(002416) (leading Chinese atomization channel). Risk tip: the risk of new tobacco policy changes, the risk of sales / enterprise development falling short of expectations and intensified market competition.
