Baijiu: Spring Festival sales season is coming. The famous liquor enterprises have received good returns. The price of the wine shops has been stable in the peak season. There has been no significant fluctuation. Some parts of the mobile terminal are still affected by the epidemic. After the epidemic, stores in the terminal stores generally take the measures of reducing stock and increasing the frequency of purchase. Consumers’ real demand and terminal mobile sales still need to be observed. The channel inventory of most famous liquor enterprises is benign, and it is expected that the Spring Festival is still expected to achieve benign growth.
Beer industry: Q4 is the traditional off-season of the beer industry. At the same time, the epidemic situation has further affected the dynamic sales. The rise in the price of main raw materials at the cost side during the year gave birth to an industrial price increase window. Leading enterprises seize the opportunity of off-season and actively implement price increase measures. Looking forward to 2022, compared with the ton price rise brought by the high-end product structure in the past, the direct price increase and high-end jointly promote the ton price rise. Under the guidance of the goal of profit orientation rather than income orientation, it is expected that the price increase is expected to be transmitted smoothly, superimposed with the impact of the catering recovery trend and the marginal slowdown of the epidemic impact, the beer industry is expected to usher in a simultaneous increase in volume and price in 2022, It is suggested to actively grasp the investment opportunities in the beer industry in 2022.
Condiment industry: under the influence of the epidemic, the catering channel was slightly affected, especially in the second half of the year. Looking forward to 2022, we are still optimistic about the recovery of the overall revenue side. Companies have achieved volume growth through national and even global layout, new customer development and channel potential exploration. At the same time, some enterprises have taken price raising measures to support price growth. On the cost side, the prices of some raw materials have dropped slightly, but the costs such as freight are still high, the terminal transmission of price increase has not been fully implemented, and the price increase bonus is expected to be gradually released in 2022q2 and beyond. Under the pressure of the industry in 2021, companies have also carried out internal and external reforms to optimize efficiency. At the same time, the cost side is also increasing the investment cycle, which has a certain impact on the release of profits.
Dairy and beverage industry: the price raising ability of the beverage industry is relatively weak. At present, it is also facing the pressure of rising costs. Enterprises in the period of rapid growth are expected to offset the cost pressure through the scale effect of sales volume. At the same time, optimizing the supply chain can also cope with the cost pressure. At present, the beverage industry still takes large single products as the mainstream strategy to actively create differentiated products and grasp consumer demand, Focus on investment opportunities brought by growing enterprises.
Halogen products industry: in the fourth quarter, due to the repeated impact of the epidemic, the halogen products industry was under short-term pressure, and leading enterprises took the initiative to reduce pressure for franchisees in order to achieve long-term development. Among them, Juewei Food Co.Ltd(603517) adjust the pace of opening stores in the short term, increase the subsidies for franchisees, and accelerate the acquisition of stores after the epidemic situation improves. According to the channel research, Zhou Heiya began to take the initiative to reduce the financial pressure of franchisees in December and develop healthily.
Quick freezing industry: the quick freezing industry has benefited from the downstream catering chain and the expansion of consumption scenarios. Among them, the pre-made track has entered a period of rapid development, and the quick freezing enterprises have entered the pre-made track to expand their product lines. On the profit side, the industry’s leading profit margin has entered the upward channel since 2019. In 2021, affected by the price rise of raw materials and channel sorting, the industry’s profit was under short-term pressure. At the end of the year, companies in the industry raised prices one after another. At present, the feedback of price increase is good, dealers follow up one after another, and the terminal price has increased. It is expected that the cost pressure will be relieved in 2022. In addition, all companies are continuing to develop channels and actively create new products. In the future, the industry scale and the penetration rate of quick-frozen products are expected to be further improved.
Investment recommendations: Baijiu, the Spring Festival peak season wine enterprises active marketing benign, sector valuation regression value allocation interval, the first real estate wine sector, Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co.Ltd(603589) , Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) , Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) , Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) and other real estate wine companies performance is expected to accelerate upward, high-end liquor consumer groups continue to expand capacity, time for space, optimistic about Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) , Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) , Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Medium and long term development of Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) . In terms of popular products, although the short-term sales volume is repeatedly affected by the epidemic, the price increase is conducted smoothly, and the performance is expected to improve quarter by quarter. The core recommendations are Qingdao Richen Food Co.Ltd(603755) , Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) , Chongqing Fuling Zhacai Group Co.Ltd(002507) , Beijing Yanjing Brewery Co.Ltd(000729) , Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) , Qianhe Condiment And Food Co.Ltd(603027) , Eastroc Beverage (Group) Co.Ltd(605499) , Juewei Food Co.Ltd(603517) , Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Co.Ltd(603345) , Ligao Foods Co.Ltd(300973) , Suzhou Weizhixiang Food Co.Ltd(605089) .
Risk tips: industry competition intensifies the risk; Repeated epidemic risk; Macroeconomic downside risk.
