Triple boost, hybrid vehicles usher in a golden development period
Due to the long cycle of fully realizing pure electrification and the increasingly stringent multiple restrictions on fuel vehicle emissions and energy consumption by policies and regulations, hybrid vehicles will gradually become the main force of the market in a certain period of time. After years of development and accumulation, China’s hybrid technology has gradually matured. The penetration rate of hybrid vehicles has increased significantly in 2021. With the launch of new generation hybrid products of independent brands, new forces and technology companies, we expect that the penetration rate of hybrid vehicles will continue to increase rapidly in 2022. According to our calculation, hybrid electric vehicles may have more than 16 times growth space in the five years 2020-2025.
Principle and configuration analysis of hybrid
Hybrid technology adjusts the working range of the engine to the most efficient part by controlling the output of the motor, so as to improve the thermal efficiency and reduce the fuel consumption. Different hybrid system configurations have different characteristics and are suitable for different application scenarios.
Europe and Japan choose different mainstream technology routes
Due to the increasingly stringent energy consumption and emission regulations in Europe, European manufacturers represented by BMW, Mercedes Benz and Audi have led to promote the application and promotion of 48V light mix system. HEV is a hybrid technology route dominated by Japanese manufacturers, and its representative products are Toyota’s th system and Honda’s i-mmd system.
Independent brands have successively launched a new generation of hybrid technology solutions
With the development of hybrid technology, independent brands have successively launched a special architecture designed and developed for hybrid vehicles. Byd Company Limited(002594) DM-I, SAIC edugen2, Geely Raytheon hi · x, Great Wall lemon DHT, Chang’an blue whale IDD and GAC gmc2 The hybrid system launched by independent brands such as 0 has advanced technology, high integration, good performance and low cost. It conforms to the development trend of hybrid electric vehicles and forms a competitive advantage.
The new pattern of hybrid car track is about to be reshaped
We judge that the future development trend of hybrid electric vehicles includes two main high-speed growth points and a mainstream technology route. The two growth points are ultra-high cost performance and long driving range hybrid vehicles. A mainstream technical route is characterized by high integration and can cover multiple scenes and multiple models at the same time. With the rapid increase of the penetration rate of hybrid electric vehicles, independent brands are expected to consolidate their advantages in the PHEV market, increase their share in the HEV market, reshape the market pattern and realize overtaking on corners.
Investment suggestions:
As an important intermediate product in the transition from fuel vehicle to pure electric vehicle, hybrid electric vehicle meets the requirements of policies and regulations and the needs of end consumers at the current stage. Therefore, hybrid vehicles usher in a golden development period and have a broad market space. Independent brands have successively launched a new generation of hybrid technology with high performance, low cost and wide application, which conforms to the development trend. It is suggested to pay attention to leading enterprises [ Byd Company Limited(002594) , Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) (a + H), Geely Automobile (H), Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) (a + H), Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) , Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) ] with rich experience and advanced technology in the field of hybrid power.
Risk tip: the recovery of the passenger car industry is less than expected, the policies and subsidies related to new energy vehicles are less than expected, and the penetration of pure electric vehicles is higher than expected.
