This week’s Chemical Market Overview
This week, the CSI 300 index fell 1.98%, and the SW chemical index fell 0.05%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.93%.. The three sub industries with the largest increase were pesticide (Shenwan) (7.28%), inorganic salt (Shenwan) (3.08%), phosphate fertilizer and phosphorus chemical industry (Shenwan) (1.81%); The three sub industries with the largest decline were polyurethane (Shenwan) (- 6.01%), nitrogen fertilizer (Shenwan) (- 5.05%) and polyester (Shenwan) (- 1.54%). In terms of subject matter, covid-19 vaccine intermediates and performance forecast data are bright, and relevant performance is strong.
Portfolio recommendation
\u3000\u3000 Jiangsu Flag Chemical Industry Co.Ltd(300575) 、 Luoyang Jalon Micro-Nano New Materials Co.Ltd(688357) 、 Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) 、 Anhui Jinhe Industrial Co.Ltd(002597) 、 Sichuan Em Technology Co.Ltd(601208)
Big events of the week
The calcium pantothenate market was supported by many positive factors, and the product price rose significantly. According to the latest news from health.com: since January 11, Chinese manufacturers of calcium pantothenate (vitamin B5) have resumed their quotation. The Chinese price is reported as 360 yuan / kg and the export quotation is US $50 / kg. From the perspective of industrial chain, in terms of demand, the vitamin market has entered the traditional peak season recently, and the downstream market has improved. In addition, there is an increase in replenishment and preparation before the Spring Festival. In terms of supply, the production of Hebei, Shandong and other manufacturers may be affected due to the upcoming winter Olympic Games. In addition, the production of pantothenic acid lactone, the upstream raw material, is affected by environmental constraints, and the shortage of supply also leads to a significant increase in the cost of calcium pantothenate. On the whole, the current upward market of calcium pantothenate is mainly affected by the tight supply side and the strong cost side support. It is expected that the future product price is expected to continue to strengthen. It is suggested to focus on it.
Investment advice
After the recent roadshow, the market generally feedback that there is a lack of main line. We think there are three points that need special attention: first, the sinking of logic. Under the background of full expectation of mainstream tracks, the market may turn more stones in non mainstream tracks, especially specialized new material targets; Second, the sinking of valuation, especially the hot subject of overvaluation, has the possibility of restructuring the valuation system; Third, the sinking of the crowded track. Recently, the target of the popular track has been adjusted greatly, which may be related to the chip structure and track congestion. The adjustment is more due to the factors at the transaction level. In the direction, we are still optimistic about small and medium cap growth stocks, especially the subject of new materials; In addition, after recent adjustments, the cost performance of some high-quality targets has become more prominent. For example, Sichuan Em Technology Co.Ltd(601208) , it is recommended to select the machine configuration.
Risk tips
The epidemic affects the demand outside China, the crude oil price fluctuates violently, and the change of trade policy affects the industrial layout.
