Market overview of this week:
Semiconductor market outperformed major indexes this week. Semiconductor market outperformed major indexes this week. This week, the Shenwan semiconductor industry index fell 0.89%, the gem index rose 0.73% over the same period, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.63%, the Shenzhen composite index fell 1.35%, the small and medium-sized board index fell 1.25%, and wandequan a fell 1.12%. The semiconductor industry index outperformed the major indexes. Most of the semiconductor segments fell. Among the semiconductor sub sectors, the semiconductor material sector rose 3.5% this week, the IC design sector rose 1.3% this week, the discrete device sector fell 1.5% this week, the semiconductor equipment sector fell 1.8% this week, the semiconductor manufacturing sector fell 2.0% this week, other sectors fell 2.1% this week, and the sealing and testing board fell 2.9% this week.
TSMC released the fourth quarter financial report of 2021, with strong performance growth. The total revenue was NT $483.19 billion, an increase of 24.1% year-on-year and 5.7% month on month, slightly higher than expected; The net profit was NT $166.23 billion, an increase of 16.4% year-on-year and 6.4% month on month; The gross profit margin reached 53%, with a month on month increase of 1.3%, which was basically consistent with expectations. Capex capital expenditure increased, mainly for the procurement of advanced semiconductor equipment and materials. In order to solve the shortage of full order capacity, TSMC announced that it would increase the amount of capital expenditure in 2022 to between us $40 billion and US $44 billion, with a significant year-on-year increase.
In terms of manufacturing process, 5nm process maintained strong growth, accounting for 23% in the fourth quarter. The company’s 5nm process accounted for about 23% of the total revenue in the fourth quarter, the 7Nm process accounted for 27% and the 16nm process accounted for 13%. In addition, the total revenue in 2021 is divided by technology. 7Nm process accounts for 31%, 5nm and 16nm account for 19% and 14% respectively.
Split by platform: the automotive and HPC end businesses increased significantly in 2021, with revenue increasing by 51% and 34% respectively year-on-year. TSMC’s smartphone business contributed 44% of its revenue, up 7% month on month; High performance computing chip (HPC) business contributed 37%, up 3% month on month; In addition, the car terminal increased by 10% month on month, and the Internet of things increased by 3% month on month. Throughout the year, the smartphone business accounted for 44% of the revenue, with a year-on-year increase of 8%; HPC business accounted for 37% of revenue, with a year-on-year increase of 34%; In addition, the revenue of automobile terminal increased significantly year-on-year, reaching 51%, and the Internet of things increased by 21%.
TSMC expects that the capacity will remain tight in 2022, and the downstream conduction capacity will affect the growth differentiation; The prosperity is still upward, and the price performance ratio of sector valuation is obvious.
TSMC expects its revenue to reach US $16.6 billion to US $17.2 billion in 2022q1. The gross profit margin is expected to be between 53% and 55%, and the operating profit margin is expected to be between 42-44%. In the long run, the gross profit margin is expected to reach the target of 53%.
In 2022, the prosperity outlook is optimistic, global demand continues to rise, focusing on HPC / Automobile / IOT. It may maintain high growth in 22 years. In 2022, it is expected that the supply chain will maintain a high level of inventory. Although the short-term imbalance may continue, the industry trend of 5g and HPC related applications supports the structural growth of long-term semiconductor demand. The company expects capacity to remain tight in 2022. TSMC predicts that the company’s annual growth rate will reach between 10% and 15% from 2020 to 2025. The company expects that the growth rate of HPC, automobile and lot business will be higher than the average growth rate of the company, and the growth rate of smartphone is basically the same as the average growth rate of the company.
It is recommended to pay attention to:
1) semiconductor design: Amlogic (Shanghai) Co.Ltd(688099) / Rockchip Electronics Co.Ltd(603893) / Sg Micro Corp(300661) / 3Peak Incorporated(688536) / Montage Technology Co.Ltd(688008) / Sino Wealth Electronic Ltd(300327) / Bestechnic (Shanghai) Co.Ltd(688608) / Espressif Systems (Shanghai) Co.Ltd(688018) / Starpower Semiconductor Ltd(603290) / Macmic Science & Technology Co.Ltd(688711) / Wuxi Nce Power Co.Ltd(605111) / Allwinnertech Technology Co.Ltd(300458) / Shanghai Fullhan Microelectronics Co.Ltd(300613) / Gigadevice Semiconductor (Beijing) Inc(603986) / Will Semiconductor Co.Ltd.Shanghai(603501) / Maxscend Microelectronics Company Limited(300782) / Shanghai Bright Power Semiconductor Co.Ltd(688368) / Unigroup Guoxin Microelectronics Co.Ltd(002049) / Shanghai Fudan
\u3000\u30002） IDM: Wingtech Technology Co.Ltd(600745) / Sanan Optoelectronics Co.Ltd(600703) / Zhuzhou Crrc Times Electric Co.Ltd(688187) / Hangzhou Silan Microelectronics Co.Ltd(600460) ；
3) wafer foundry: Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation(688981) / Huahong semiconductor;
4) semiconductor equipment materials: Naura Technology Group Co.Ltd(002371) / Jiangsu Yoke Technology Co.Ltd(002409) / Shanghai Sinyang Semiconductor Materials Co.Ltd(300236) / Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment Inc.China(688012) / Wuhan Jingce Electronic Group Co.Ltd(300567) / Beijing Huafeng Test & Control Technology Co.Ltd(688200) / Changchuan
Technology / Grinm Advanced Materials Co.Ltd(600206) / Jiangyin Jianghua Microelectronics Materials Co.Ltd(603078) ;
Risk tips: changes in industrial policies, intensified international trade disputes, and the development of downstream industries is less than expected
