The river basin water environment control plan was issued. Recently, the national development and Reform Commission issued the plan for comprehensive treatment of water environment in key river basins during the 14th Five Year Plan period. The plan makes it clear that by 2025, a relatively perfect urban water pollution prevention and control system will be basically formed, the centralized collection rate of urban domestic sewage will strive to reach more than 70%, and the black and smelly water bodies in the city will be basically eliminated. In addition, the government is expected to introduce a series of plans and schemes to promote the development of the sewage treatment industry by putting forward requirements for the water quality compliance rate of important river and lake water functional areas, water environmental quality of key river basins and centralized domestic and drinking water sources.
The market trend of cement and glass industry is weakening. In terms of demand, the cement market demand remains stable this week. As the Spring Festival is approaching, most construction sites in China are in a shutdown state. In the next two weeks, the national cement market demand will continue to be at a low level, and the cement price is expected to maintain a downward trend. In terms of supply, at present, the staggered peak shutdown of kilns in the heating season in the north is ongoing, and the staggered peak production stage is also entering in the south, and the national cement supply will continue to shrink. The slight rise in coal price this week has no obvious impact on cement cost. However, due to the lower cement price, the cement coal price difference decreased month on month compared with last week, but it still increased compared with the same period last year.
As the steel market entered the “winter storage” and began to accumulate reserves, the cost rise was stronger than the steel price, and the gross profit per ton of steel decreased. Supported by favorable macroeconomic data and rising raw material prices, steel prices rose narrowly this week, the cost rise was stronger than steel prices, and the gross profit per ton of steel decreased. In terms of supply, the supply of steel of the five major varieties continued to rise. In terms of varieties, except for wire rod and medium and heavy sector, the other varieties increased month on month; Consumption continued to pick up and the increase narrowed, and the downstream demand and market transaction level remained weak in the off-season; Inventory has increased for two consecutive weeks, entering the traditional “winter storage” market, the actual demand in the downstream is weakened, and the inflection point of social inventory appears, from decline to rise. The raw material side provides cost support. This week, the iron ore market is strong, the coke price rises three times in a row, the scrap steel rises slightly, and the cost line continues to move up.
Long term logic, coal supply constraints are still. The bottleneck of supply growth is obvious, the enthusiasm of coal enterprises to invest in new mines is weak, the economy is poor, the construction cycle of new production capacity is long and the approval procedures are complicated, which restrict the growth of coal production capacity. The double carbon background determines that the coal supply will remain stable, and Sanxi and Xinjiang with excellent resource endowment will be strong. At the same time, The stability of coal price is very important to the healthy development of the whole industry. The periodicity of the industry is weakened and the profit stability is enhanced. The cash flow situation of coal enterprises in recent years has also laid a solid foundation for some coal enterprises to develop in depth into new energy, new materials and industries.
Investment suggestion: environmental protection and public use: it is recommended to pay attention to Beijing Originwater Technology Co.Ltd(300070) (300070. SZ), Chengdu Xingrong Environment Co.Ltd(000598) (000598. SZ), Henan Bccy Environmental Energy Co.Ltd(300614) (300614. SZ), Beijing Geoenviron Engineering & Technology Inc(603588) (603588. SH), Zhefu Holding Group Co.Ltd(002266) (002266. SZ), Shandong Intco Recycling Resources Co.Ltd(688087) (688087. SH). Building materials: recommended Guangdong Kinlong Hardware Products Co.Ltd(002791) (002791. SZ), Beijing New Building Materials Public Limited Company(000786) (000786. SZ), Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) (002271. SZ), China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) (600176. SH), Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) (002372. SZ), Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) (601636. SH), Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) (300737. SZ). Steel: recommended Baoshan Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600019) (600019. SH), Xinyu Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600782) (600782. SH), Inner Mongolia Baotou Steel Union Co.Ltd(600010) (600010. SH), Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) (002756. SZ), Fushun Special Steel Co.Ltd(600399) (600399. SH). Coal: recommended China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) (601088. SH), Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) (601225. SH), Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) (000983. SZ), Shanxi Meijin Energy Co.Ltd(000723) (000723), Shan Xi Hua Yang Group New Energy Co.Ltd(600348) (600348).
Risk warning: the risk of sharp fluctuations in raw material prices; Risk that downstream demand is less than expected; Risk that the landing effect of production restriction is less than expected; The risk that the policy strength is less than expected; The risk that the new capacity of the industry exceeds the expectation; The risk of sharp decline in coal prices under the pressure of policy regulation.
