Industry tracking (2022.1.8-2022.1.14)
The Information Office of the State Council held a press conference on January 11, 2022 to introduce the relevant information of the 14th five year plan for public services. The document puts forward the public service objectives in the fields of children’s education, learning and education, income from work, medical treatment, support for the elderly, housing, support for the weak, excellent military service guarantee and sports service guarantee. For housing, while continuing to do a good job in the areas of basic housing security such as public rental housing security for poor families, shantytowns transformation and rural dilapidated housing transformation, it is proposed to “actively promote the improvement of housing conditions” and “promote the equalization of basic public services”. We believe that while activating new space for industry transformation, it is also expected to accelerate the market-oriented flow of population factors, Further consolidate the advantages of agglomeration and development of urban agglomeration.
Among them, affordable rental housing is the main focus of inclusive non basic public services. During the 14th Five Year Plan period, the average annual construction and installation investment of affordable rental housing in 40 large and medium-sized cities will drive the investment in real estate development (2020) between 1.19% – 1.67%; The potential housing improvement space outside the old reform is still considerable. The stock housing area involved in the “old reform” of old urban communities is about 4.515 billion square meters, and the potential improvement space is estimated to be about 13.55 billion square meters; The equalization of public services accelerates the market-oriented flow of population factors, strengthens the agglomeration and development effect of core urban agglomeration, and provides demand support for local real estate.
The weekly turnover of new houses and second-hand houses improved month on month, and the year-on-year decline expanded under the pressure of high base
The new housing market traded 5.58 million square meters this week, with a monthly year-on-year increase of – 34.18% and a month on week increase of + 27.11%; The accumulated inventory was 164.7 million square meters, the de urbanization of the second line, the third line and below slowed down, and the first-line speed was flat. The second-hand housing market traded 1.68 million square meters this week, with a month-on-month increase of – 32.24% and a month-on-month increase of + 84.62%. The land market traded 3.58 million square meters this week, rolling for 12 weeks, with a year-on-year increase of – 56.51%; The total turnover was 4.6 billion yuan, rolling for 12 weeks, with a year-on-year increase of – 46.40%; The national average premium rate was 0.00%, rolling for 12 weeks, year-on-year -9.55pct. Compared with last week, the turnover of new houses and second-hand houses improved month on month, but the year-on-year increase expanded under the pressure of high base; We believe that the real estate sales market will face the challenge of high base in the first quarter. This week, the Shenwan real estate index was – 3.50%, down 7.96 PCT from last week, ranking 26 / 31, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 1.52 PCT. In terms of H shares, this week’s wind Hong Kong real estate index was + 0.07%, down 1.54 PCT from last week, ranking 10 / 11 higher, underperforming the Hang Seng Index by 3.72 PCT; The kroney leading index of real estate stocks was – 2.55%, down 8.67pct from last week.
Grasp the improvement of M & A on the left and concentration on the right
Investment suggestions: Recently, the management has made intensive statements to guide the industry towards a more standardized stable and healthy development period in the medium and long term, short-term policy adjustments to alleviate pessimistic sales expectations, affordable rental housing to hedge against the decline of potential development investment, and promote the industry to return to a virtuous circle and healthy development. The future industry beta depends on the adjustment of industry structure, the pace of capacity clearing and the strength of policy support; Alpha focuses on the repair of the balance sheet and profit margin of key real estate enterprises by M & A, the accuracy of countercyclical plus leverage, and the long-term excavation of the value of housing scenarios. Suggestions: 1) high quality leaders: Gemdale Corporation(600383) , Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , rongchuang China, China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , Longhu group, China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) ; 2) High quality growth: Jinke Property Group Co.Ltd(000656) , Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) , Jiangsu Zhongnan Construction Group Co.Ltd(000961) , Xuhui holding group; 3) High quality property management: Country Garden service, xinchengyue service, Greentown service, China Merchants Property Operation & Service Co.Ltd(001914) , poly property.
Risk warning: industry credit risk spread; The downward cycle of industry sales begins; Administrative regulation and control remained high-pressure, and the pilot strength of real estate tax exceeded expectations; Subjective measurement deviation risk
